EUR/USD expiries at 1.1400 and 1.1425 could affect price movements ahead of US-China trade updates

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jun 10, 2025
    On June 10, there are several FX option expiries scheduled for 10 a.m. New York time, with a special focus on the EUR/USD and USD/CAD levels. For EUR/USD, key levels to watch are 1.1400 and 1.1425. These levels might help stabilize price movements unless there’s a major shift in sentiment due to US-China trade talks. The 200-hour moving average at 1.1390 also helps keep EUR/USD prices steady. This average can enhance the influence of the options expiry on the day’s price activity. For USD/CAD, an expiry at 1.3695 could keep price changes limited, despite a lack of technical correlation, especially with upcoming US-China discussions looming.

    Impact Of FX Option Expiries

    Foreign exchange option expiries can affect spot price movements, especially when they are close to the current market rate. In the case of EUR/USD, the levels near 1.1400 and 1.1425 stand out because of the well-sized options set to expire there. These levels often pull the spot rate toward them as the expiry time approaches, particularly if market volatility remains low. The 200-hour moving average at 1.1390 is significant—it acts as an important point for traders to watch. When spot prices are near both option strikes and moving averages, these areas often become temporary resting points on the chart. Traders dealing with derivatives usually adjust their positions around these levels, which often results in calmer price movements before the expiry. For USD/CAD, there is less technical alignment, yet the expiry at 1.3695 is substantial enough to possibly influence prices. Even without support from trendlines or moving averages, these contracts can still impact direction, especially when macro factors—like trade talk expectations—keep traders from taking larger positions.

    Market Conditions And Strategies

    In the coming weeks, we might see similar conditions where markets slow down or align with expiry levels during low volatility periods. This can limit daily opportunities for direct bets but allows for range strategies or short-term volatility plays. If prices cluster near option strikes that also have technical backing—like recent highs, moving averages, or breakout levels—those points should be monitored closely. It’s essential to consider both timing and magnitude. If option strikes coincide with price congestion, they can restrict movement until expiry. On such days, focusing on implied volatility metrics and comparing them to actual price movements can provide insights. If implied volatility starts to misprice real swings, there may be an opportunity for short-term premium capture. Keeping track of the expiry calendar and surrounding pricing is valuable not just for large institutions—it helps with position sizing, avoids chasing erratic price moves, and improves timing. Price clusters around expiry dates are not coincidences; they often indicate where substantial hedging occurs, and this hedging behavior tends to reinforce itself. We must recognize that these trades are highly sensitive to market impact. It’s not just the size of the expiring option that counts, but how spot prices behaved in the lead-up. For instance, if EUR/USD trades within a narrow range for 12-18 hours before expiry, with minimal economic news, those expiring levels will likely pull prices closer. When market correlations re-emerge—like if oil data suddenly affects USD/CAD—those option-heavy areas may lose their influence. However, as long as market drivers remain steady and price ranges tight, the option expiry calendar prompts many traders to be cautious and adaptable. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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