FX Option Expiries

Today, there are two important expiries for EUR/USD at 1.1650 and 1.1675. Recent strong US PPI data caused the dollar to regain some strength, but the holiday in Europe might keep price changes minimal. The 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1641 and 1.1662 are drawing short-term interest, which could impact market activity. If you need more advice on using this information, additional resources are available. With the significant EUR/USD option expiries at 1.1650 and 1.1675, we expect the market to stay calm today. The European holiday helps support this idea, keeping price action quiet. However, this brief stability hides a growing difference that may influence the market in coming weeks.

Potential Market Movements

Looking ahead, the dollar remains strong thanks to solid economic data. The latest US Producer Price Index for July 2025 showed a surprising increase of +0.4%. This leads to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This is a stark contrast to discussions around monetary policy we saw earlier in 2024. On the other hand, the Eurozone is showing signs of cooling. Its recent inflation data for July 2025 dropped to 2.1%. This gives the European Central Bank a stronger reason to consider rate cuts before year’s end. The widening gap between Fed and ECB policies is a key focus for us. For traders, the current calm offers a chance to prepare for future shifts. Implied volatility for EUR/USD options expiring in the next month or two is relatively low, despite the likelihood of a breakout. We believe this period of stability will lead to a notable trend once today’s technical barriers are broken. Thus, we see an opportunity to position for a decline in EUR/USD in the coming weeks. Taking bearish positions, such as buying euro puts, could be a smart strategy. This would capitalize on a possible dip toward the 1.1500 psychological level as differences in central bank policies grow clearer. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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