There are a couple of key levels to watch for EUR/USD, specifically at 1.1650 and 1.1700. After last week’s gains, the dollar is trying to stabilize this week. The mentioned expiries could keep price movements in check until they expire later in the day. Around the 1.1700 level, the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.1707, offers short-term resistance. Important data from the US is expected throughout the week and will likely impact price changes.

Trading Focus Areas

Traders are keeping an eye on the euro-dollar pair mainly around 1.1650 and 1.1700. These levels are important because they are where option positions are clustered, acting as temporary barriers for price movement. When prices approach these zones, they may pause or reverse because of how option books are structured. This type of resistance limits volatility temporarily but doesn’t eliminate risk—it just postpones it. Additionally, the 100-hour moving average at 1.1707 aligns with these levels, adding another technical component. While there’s no guarantee how prices will react, the chances of hesitation or reversal increase when it coincides with option expiry levels. If prices move just above this level, we should be cautious of unusual stickiness or quick reversals, especially during early trading hours when liquidity might be low. We also need to consider the broader schedule. A series of US data releases are planned for the week. These are significant events that can change expectations about interest rates and inflation. Surprises in these data points can increase volatility, and those seemingly safe expiry boundaries may break down more quickly than expected.

Pricing Risk and Momentum

Given this, it may be wise to be more cautious about pricing risk near these option-heavy areas. One strategy is to avoid overcommitting to momentum, especially if it builds just below 1.1650 or 1.1700. Instead, focus on where the next liquidity pockets are, perhaps below 1.1625 or above 1.1725, and plan how to react if prices start to surge into those gaps. This situation is familiar. When momentum builds near expiry boundaries and prices stall, it often just takes waiting until the settlement time. After that, prices often move more clearly. In the post-expiry period, traders without options tend to reposition quickly, which can accelerate trends that were previously held back. Remember, the current strength of the dollar remains steady. This suggests we should approach euro rallies with caution as they near technical resistance. This doesn’t mean dismissing upward moves entirely—it’s about recognizing that chasing prices without a pullback faces resistance from charts and volume barriers due to structural flows. This is especially true when market sentiment still leans positively toward the dollar in the short term. The direction we take will depend on how data shifts expectations—not just whether there are surprises but how these surprises change what traders are anticipating for the coming months. When the narrative changes, it does so dramatically. For now, there’s no rush to invest in breakout moves, unless they clear expiry zones and hold. Adopting a balanced approach allows us flexibility while the market settles. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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