The EUR/USD is currently at 1.1650, close to a six-week low of 1.1589. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 40, indicating weak momentum. Key resistance is found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1672. The EUR/USD pair is below both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating a downward trend due to flat and declining moving averages. If it drops below 1.1589, it could fall further to 1.1468, the lowest point since August 2025.

Resistance Levels To Watch

Resistance might be found at the nine-day EMA of 1.1672 and the 50-day EMA at 1.1677. If the pair rises above these levels, it may stabilise and shift focus to the three-month high of 1.1808 from December 24 and 1.1918, the highest since June 2021. A table shows the percentage changes of the Euro against major currencies, with the Euro performing best against the Swiss Franc. This technical analysis was created using an AI tool. It does not offer specific investment advice and only reflects the author’s views.

Key Technical Indicators

With the EUR/USD at 1.1650, the outlook appears bearish for the upcoming weeks. The nine-day moving average has dipped below the 50-day, signaling a loss of upward momentum, as seen in past market cycles. This trend is also supported by last week’s strong US jobs report for December 2025, which revealed 210,000 new jobs, delaying expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. For those expecting a further decline, watch for a drop below the six-week low of 1.1589. A move below this level could target the 1.1468 support area, not seen since last August. Traders might consider buying put options with a strike price around 1.1550 to take advantage of this potential drop, especially since recent Eurozone inflation data for December confirmed a two-year low of 2.1%. Conversely, keep an eye on the resistance around 1.1675, where the nine and 50-day averages meet. If the pair rebounds past this point, it could indicate a false breakdown, bringing the December 24 high of 1.1808 back into play. Hedge bearish positions with short-dated call options above 1.1700 to manage the risk of a quick market reversal. The weak momentum, shown by the Relative Strength Index at 40, suggests that price movements may be slow rather than dramatic. This favors strategies based on range-bound trading or gradual declines. Similar to the choppy conditions of late 2024, selling options for premium collection may be effective. The current low implied volatility, below 7% for one-month options, reflects a lack of strong directional movement in the market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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