The EURUSD has been trending upwards after reacting to the US CPI report. It initially rose but faced resistance at a downward slope and the 61.8% retracement level. This caused a pullback to the 50% midpoint at 1.16098, where it found support at 1.1617. Buyers came back, pushing the price up again. The 100-hour moving average at 1.16435 became an important point. When the price broke above this average, the outlook shifted toward the bulls, helping the currency pair gain even more. The EURUSD is nearing the top of its recent trading ranges, reaching a high of 1.1696 today, just below last week’s peak of 1.1698.

Important Resistance Level

Traders are focused on the 1.1700 resistance level. If it breaks above this, the next target could be the July 24 high of 1.1787. Short-term momentum looks good for further gains, but there is resistance nearby. Sellers may defend the 1.1700 level, especially after the recent rise. Key support levels are the 61.8% retracement at 1.16615 and the 100-hour moving average. Staying above these levels is crucial for buyers. As of August 12th, 2025, we are seeing the EURUSD test the important 1.1700 resistance level. This comes after the US inflation data released last week, showing the July Consumer Price Index at 3.1%, slightly below the expected 3.2%. This indicates a slowing US economy, putting pressure on the dollar and benefiting the euro. The technical outlook also gets support from European fundamentals. Recent comments from European Central Bank officials emphasize their plan to keep rates high, as Eurozone inflation remains at 2.8%. This difference in policy, along with a Federal Reserve that may pause, supports the euro’s strength and explains the bounce from the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.1643. We’ve seen similar situations before, especially in late 2024 around the 1.12 level, where the pair consolidated for weeks before a shift in central bank guidance led to a sharp breakout. This history suggests we should look for a catalyst to push the pair out of the tight range near 1.1700.

Trading Strategies

In the upcoming weeks, traders should consider a daily close above 1.1700 as a strong bullish signal. This could be a cue to buy call options, aiming for the next major resistance at 1.1787. It is essential to wait for confirmation of the breakout instead of trying to predict it. On the other hand, if the pair fails at the 1.1700 level, we may see a quick decline. In that case, buying short-term put options on a rejection would target a move back to the 100-hour MA at 1.1643. The 100-hour moving average is the critical level to monitor; a break below it would indicate that buying pressure has weakened. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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