The EUR/USD pair is currently around the 50-day EMA at 1.1682, which shows weakening momentum. The 14-day RSI is at 42.6, indicating a neutral to bearish trend. The first resistance level is the nine-day EMA at 1.1711. After four days of losses, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1680 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The daily chart shows the RSI falling below the 50 midline, signaling weakening momentum and a bearish market stance.

Decline In Upward Momentum

The pair is below both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs, showing a decline in upward momentum. The medium-term average is rising slightly but is flattening, while the short-term average is falling, limiting immediate gains. Staying below the nine-day EMA makes EUR/USD vulnerable. If weakness continues, risks may shift downward. A close below the 50-day EMA at 1.1682 could weaken medium-term momentum further and may lead to testing the monthly low at 1.1589. If the pair rises above the nine-day EMA at 1.1711, it could regain momentum, targeting the recent high of 1.1808. Continued increases may improve short-term momentum, paving the way to 1.1918, the highest point since June 2021. Looking back to December 2025, we noticed the EUR/USD pair showing signs of weakening momentum. Prices struggled below the 1.1700 level, and the bearish RSI supported this view as we entered the new year.

Bears Continued Dominance

Last week confirmed the bearish trend with a strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for December 2025, which added 210,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 180,000. This, along with weaker-than-expected Eurozone inflation, pushed the pair below the previous support at 1.1589. Now, we see the pair stabilizing around 1.1550. For options traders, this drop below key support levels suggests a new strategy. Buying put options to bet on further declines is a main focus, especially as implied volatility increases after recent economic data. Creating bear put spreads could also help limit costs while keeping a bearish position. Those with short futures contracts have benefited and should actively manage their positions. The key resistance levels from late 2025, especially around the 1.1682 to 1.1711 range, now act as significant obstacles to any recovery. Any rally toward this area may be viewed as a chance to open new short positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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