The euro stayed under pressure against the US dollar on Friday, keeping EUR/USD confined to the past two weeks’ range and capped below 1.1660. A 60‑day extension to the US‑Iran ceasefire, set out in a memorandum of understanding, improved risk appetite, although the accord still requires ratification by both governments. In the euro area, softer data from France included a contraction in Q1 GDP, while inflation in France and Spain came in below expectations even as it remained above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Germany’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in April, and Italy’s Q1 GDP increased at a faster pace.
Attention has turned to Germany’s preliminary May HICP data, due later on Thursday, after a sharp pick-up in March and April linked to an energy shock from the Iran war. In technical terms, EUR/USD traded at 1.1643; the 4‑hour RSI held above 50 and MACD was slightly positive, but a break over 1.1660 is needed to reinforce a bullish reversal. Above there, resistance sits at 1.1720 and then near 1.1790, while support is seen at 1.1625, with further levels at 1.1575 and 1.1505–1.1525.
Eurozone Inflation And Central Bank Outlook
We are watching the Euro remain capped below the key 1.1660 resistance level, trapped in its recent range. Yesterday’s preliminary German inflation data for May came in slightly hotter than anticipated at 2.6% year-over-year, which strengthens the case for a European Central Bank rate hike in June. This confirms our view that underlying price pressures in the Eurozone are not fading as quickly as some had hoped.
This makes buying bullish options structures attractive for the coming weeks as we anticipate a potential breakout. We see an opportunity in using bull call spreads, perhaps buying the 1.1650 strike call and selling the 1.1750 strike call expiring in late June. This strategy offers a defined-risk way to profit from a move above the key resistance level.
U.S. Data, Volatility, And Risk Management
On the other hand, recent U.S. economic data remains robust, with the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report showing a solid addition of 210,000 jobs, keeping the dollar supported. Should the Euro fail to break higher, the pair could revisit the lower end of its range near 1.1575. We should therefore consider buying puts with a strike below this level to hedge against a failed rally.
The sideways price action over the last two weeks has kept implied volatility for EUR/USD options relatively low. This creates a favorable environment for buying options, as they are comparatively cheap ahead of a potential catalyst like the June ECB meeting. We expect a sharp increase in volatility if the 1.1660 level is breached, which would benefit long vega strategies.
We must also remain cautious about the US-Iran agreement, as it is still pending ratification and could easily unravel. Geopolitical relief rallies can be short-lived, much like we saw during the initial de-escalation of trade tensions back in 2019 which saw several false starts. This underlying risk supports keeping derivative positions well-defined and not over-leveraging on a single directional outcome.
