On September 15, 2025, during the European morning session, there were notable market updates. Nvidia’s shares fell by about 1.6% after China claimed the company violated antitrust laws. Kazimir from the European Central Bank mentioned that policy should stay the same unless inflation significantly deviates from the target. Germany’s wholesale price index for August dropped by 0.6%, compared to the previous month’s 0.1%. Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s trade balance for July rose to €12.4 billion from €7.0 billion. In market movements, the GBP was strong while the USD lagged. European equities increased, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%. The US 10-year yields stayed stable at 4.068%, while gold remained unchanged at $3,644.19. WTI crude oil ticked up by 0.4% to $62.81, and Bitcoin slipped by 0.3% to $114,907.

Forex Market Update

In the forex market, GBP/USD rose by 0.4%, crossing above 1.3600, and EUR/USD increased by 0.2% to 1.1758. USD/JPY decreased by 0.2% to 147.35, while AUD/USD went up by 0.2% to 0.6660. Traders are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, with speculation around a possible rate cut. The main focus this week is the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. Many expect a rate cut, but the important question is whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points. This uncertainty could lead to volatility across different asset classes. Given the current market conditions, we should look for strategies that benefit from significant price swings in either direction. Referring to the volatility spikes during the Fed’s policy changes in 2023, straddles on the S&P 500 might be a good choice. Implied volatility on short-dated options is likely to increase as we near Wednesday’s announcement.

Potential Market Volatility

The dollar is trending down ahead of the news, setting the stage for potential big movements. Historically, the Dollar Index has often moved over 1% on surprise Fed announcements, creating chances in FX options. A 50 basis point cut could lead to a sharp drop, while unexpected hawkishness could cause a significant short squeeze. We need to keep a close eye on the tech sector, especially with the China investigation into Nvidia, which adds specific risks. This situation is similar to the sector-specific shocks during the 2018-2019 trade disputes. It might be wise to consider put options on the Nasdaq 100 as protection against rising US-China tensions that could affect more than just one company. Gold is near its record high, and a dovish Fed could ignite another rally. Historically, periods of Fed easing have been positive for gold. For instance, gold saw substantial gains following the rate cuts that began in mid-2019. Buying call options might be a good way to capitalize on a possible breakout above the current level. There’s a noticeable divergence between the hawkish European Central Bank and the Fed, which is expected to cut rates. This policy gap, along with an improving Eurozone trade balance, strengthens the case for a higher EUR/USD. Buying calls on the Euro could be a way to take advantage of this clear macro trend as the pair tests its range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now