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    Eurozone CFTC data shows non-commercial euro net positions rose from 163.4K to 180.3K

    by VT Markets
    /
    Feb 14, 2026
    Eurozone CFTC non-commercial net positions in the euro rose to €180.3K, up from €163.4K previously. This is an increase of €16.9K between the two reports. Bullish sentiment on the euro is rising. Speculators now hold 180.3K net long contracts, up from 163.4K. This suggests large traders are increasing their bets that the euro will gain in the coming weeks. It is the highest net long level in more than six months. This shift likely reflects recent data that shows a gap between the Eurozone and the U.S. Eurozone core inflation for January 2026 held at 2.5%, which surprised analysts. Meanwhile, last week’s U.S. retail sales fell by 0.4%. Together, these numbers imply the European Central Bank may have less need to cut rates than the U.S. Federal Reserve. A similar setup appeared in Q3 2025, when net longs moved above 150K. After that, EUR/USD rose steadily from 1.08 to 1.11 over the next two months. Today’s positioning could point to a repeat of that move. If acting on this view, one direct approach is to buy call options on euro futures that expire in April or May 2026. We would look at strike prices slightly above the current market level to capture upside if the euro rallies. This can offer strong leverage if the move continues. A more conservative strategy is a bull put spread. This means selling a put with a higher strike and buying a put with a lower strike. The goal is to collect a net credit while expecting the euro to stay steady or rise. Risk is capped, and the position can benefit from time decay if the market moves sideways. Still, this much one-way positioning can become a crowded trade. A sharp reversal could follow unexpected hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We would use trailing stops on futures positions and watch option implied volatility for signs of rising market stress.

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