EURUSD has dropped to new session lows, nearing an important technical point at the 50% retracement level from the July 1 peak, which is at 1.16098. Earlier, the pair fell below its 100-hour moving average of 1.16312, creating a short-term downward trend. If it breaks below 1.16098, we might see movement towards the 200-hour moving average at 1.15648. The range between 1.16098 and Wednesday’s high of 1.1698 has been a focal point recently, raising questions about whether sellers can break through this zone to maintain their momentum.

Emerging Weakness in EURUSD

As of August 11, 2025, EURUSD shows significant weakness. It is testing a key support level at 1.1610, a major battleground for traders. Staying below the 100-hour moving average near 1.1631 keeps the immediate outlook firmly negative. This technical pressure is supported by differing economic data from early August 2025. Recent reports indicate the US CPI inflation for July slightly exceeded expectations at 3.4%, while the latest Non-Farm Payrolls added a solid 210,000 jobs. Meanwhile, German industrial production figures from last week suggest a slowdown in the Eurozone’s core economy. The gap in policies between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank appears to be growing, contributing to this trend. Strong US data allows the Fed to maintain its strict stance, while weak Eurozone data has the ECB suggesting a possibly softer approach later this year. We witnessed a similar scenario in late 2024, which led to a period of dollar strength.

Suggested Bearish Strategies

For derivative traders, this environment suggests that bearish strategies on EURUSD may be advantageous in the coming weeks. Buying put options with strike prices below 1.1600 could be a direct way to prepare for a dip toward the 200-hour moving average at 1.1565. The defined risk of options is particularly helpful, considering the potential for sudden, data-driven reversals. Risk management is essential here, as the 1.1610 level might still hold and cause a bounce. Traders taking short positions should think about placing stop-loss orders just above the 100-hour moving average around 1.1635. A strong move back above that level would invalidate the current bearish outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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