OPEC Expects Market Balance

Oil prices are stable as we wait for the meeting between Trump and Putin. OPEC plans to boost oil output to address a supply shortage expected next year, according to ING experts. In its monthly oil market report, OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) for this year and 1.4 million b/d for 2026. They also expect non-OPEC+ producers to increase output by 810,000 b/d this year and 630,000 b/d in 2026. OPEC now believes the global oil market will balance next year, as supply catches up with demand. In September, OPEC raised its output by 540,000 b/d, totaling 28.4 million b/d, mainly from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will soon provide its oil market report, which will offer more insights. Meanwhile, interest continues in other market factors, as FXStreet highlights currencies and global economic indicators. Investors are also exploring new strategies in the oil sector and beyond. As of October 14, 2025, OPEC’s latest report indicates a major shift in the oil market outlook for 2026. The expected supply deficit is now smaller, or possibly balanced, thanks to rising production from the OPEC+ alliance. This challenges the view of a lasting supply shortage and suggests limited upside for oil prices in the medium term.

Managing Oil Price Strategies

This forecast isn’t just a guess; it’s based on current actions. In September 2025, OPEC increased its output by 540,000 barrels per day, with major producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE contributing significantly. This added supply is affecting prices right now. However, there is caution regarding demand. The latest EIA report revealed a surprising increase in US crude inventories by 1.8 million barrels, contrasting with the consistent draws seen throughout much of 2024. Additionally, recent manufacturing PMI data from China fell short of predictions, raising concerns about its oil demand as we enter the new year. In light of this environment, we should be careful with aggressive bullish strategies in the coming weeks. Consider reducing exposure to long-dated call options for 2026 and look into strategies like selling covered calls on existing long positions to generate income. Given the likelihood of a more balanced market, establishing bear call spreads could also help us profit if prices remain steady or decline. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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