Inflation And Growth Signals
This lower inflation figure is consistent with other signs of a slowing economy. The most recent Absa Manufacturing PMI for February 2026 dipped into contraction territory at 48.8, while January’s retail sales growth was extremely weak. This combination of disinflation and sluggish activity makes a future interest rate cut a real possibility. Given this outlook, we believe positioning for lower interest rates is the primary trade. Traders should consider receiving fixed on interest rate swaps, betting that floating rates will fall over the life of the contract. Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs) that lock in a lower JIBAR for future periods also look attractive now. This potential for monetary easing is likely to put pressure on the Rand. We recall how the SARB’s aggressive hiking cycle during 2025 provided crucial support for the ZAR, so a reversal in policy could weaken the currency. Buying call options on USD/ZAR is a defined-risk way to position for a depreciation in the Rand. The clearest opportunity may be in the government bond market, which reacts directly to interest rate expectations. Yields on the 10-year government bond have already fallen by 15 basis points to 9.25% on the back of this inflation news. We think going long on bond futures is a straightforward strategy to profit from rising bond prices as yields continue to fall.Equity Market Volatility Outlook
For the equity market, the picture is less clear, creating opportunities for options traders. While lower rates could boost company valuations, the underlying economic weakness could hurt corporate profits. This uncertainty suggests that strategies betting on increased volatility, such as straddles on the FTSE/JSE Top 40 index, could be effective. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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