FedEx (FDX) closed at $374.72, up 1.42% on the day. The S&P 500 rose 0.05%, the Dow gained 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.22%.
Over the past month, FedEx shares rose 17.98%. The Transportation sector gained 8.02% over the same period, while the S&P 500 fell 1.99%.
The next earnings update is expected to show EPS of $4.06, down 9.98% from a year ago. Revenue is forecast at $23.46 billion, up 5.89% versus the same quarter last year.
For the full year, analysts forecast earnings of $18.38 per share and revenue of $92.6 billion. That would be an increase of 1.04% in earnings and 5.32% in revenue compared with last year.
Over the past month, the consensus EPS estimate rose by 0.11%. FedEx has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), on a scale from #1 to #5.
FedEx trades at a forward P/E of 20.1, in line with the industry average of 20.1. Its PEG ratio is 1.8, compared with the industry average of 1.87.
The Transportation – Air Freight and Cargo industry has a Zacks Industry Rank of 86, which puts it in the top 36% of 250+ industries. Zacks data shows that industries in the top 50% tend to outperform the bottom half by 2 to 1.
After an 18% jump over the last month, the stock could be more volatile going into earnings. Traders are weighing two forces: strong momentum versus a forecast near-10% drop in EPS. That mix increases the chance of a big move if results beat or miss expectations.
The broader economy also matters. January 2026 U.S. consumer spending came in stronger than expected, which supports the projected 5.9% revenue growth. Also, FedEx’s cost-cutting efforts during 2025 could help offset weaker profits. The market may focus more on improving efficiency than on the near-term dip in earnings.
Implied volatility in FedEx options is already rising. That means traders are pricing in a multi-percentage-point move after earnings. Historically, FDX has moved about 6% after earnings, though it dropped 11% after the earnings miss in Q3 2025. Because large swings are possible in either direction, strategies like long straddles or strangles may fit traders who want exposure to volatility.
If you expect the uptrend to continue, a bull call spread can be a lower-cost way to position for more upside while limiting risk. It’s often cheaper than buying calls outright, which matters when options are expensive. This approach fits a view that revenue growth and recent operational improvements will matter more than the expected drop in EPS.
On the other hand, the projected EPS decline could support bearish trades. Buying puts or using bear put spreads is a direct way to bet that the market will punish weaker profitability, especially after a sharp rally. This case would strengthen if competitors issue negative updates or if shipping volume forecasts are cut in the days ahead.
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