On August 15, 2025, China will release important economic data for July. This information will help us understand various economic indicators and give a clearer view of the country’s economic condition during that time. The release times are set in GMT, based on the investingLive economic calendar. Each entry will show the results from the previous month and any median consensus expectations.

Tracking Economic Events

This calendar is a useful tool for monitoring significant economic events and expectations across Asia. China’s economic indicators are the primary focus. As we approach the release of July’s economic data tomorrow, we see an increase in implied volatility in related markets. In options on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, the cost of protection has risen as traders brace for potential market surprises. This surge in volatility offers an opportunity for traders who believe the actual market reaction will be less extreme than the current pricing suggests. The forecast indicates a slight slowdown, but market sentiment is still shaky due to ongoing issues in the property sector that have persisted since the 2023 crisis. If industrial production and retail sales fall short of expectations, we might see a rush to buy put options on Chinese equity ETFs and sell futures for commodities like copper and iron ore. On the other hand, a strong performance could lead to a short squeeze, as any sign of recovery would challenge the negative outlook that has built up over the past year.

Market Strategy and Implications

For volatility traders, the minutes after the 1:30 AM GMT release will be crucial. A strategy called selling a strangle—selling both an out-of-the-money call and put option—could prove beneficial if the data aligns with expectations and the market reaction is calm. This approach takes advantage of the “volatility crush,” where implied volatility drops sharply after the release. We should also pay attention to currency derivatives, especially in the Australian dollar, which often serves as a liquid proxy for the Chinese economy. One-week options on the AUD/USD pair are seeing increased demand, reflecting bets on a significant move following the data release. Historically, a 1% miss in China’s industrial production has resulted in a 30 to 50 basis point drop in the AUD/USD within the same trading day. In the coming weeks, this data will influence expectations for policies from the People’s Bank of China. If the numbers are particularly weak, it could spark speculation about an imminent interest rate cut or a decrease in the reserve requirement ratio for banks. This might lead traders to position for a steeper yield curve using interest rate futures or buy longer-dated call options, anticipating a market rally driven by policy changes later in the quarter. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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