Asian markets gave little guidance after the sell-off on Thursday and Friday, with attention shifting to Europe and the UK for the next move. The Yemen–Israel strike was mentioned as a possible factor that may already have been reflected in prices.
The US dollar was described as firm, while the New Zealand dollar remained weak. A short-term corrective rebound was expected, without major breaks above resistance.
Wide trading ranges in the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq put focus on Pivot Points during the session. For the Nasdaq, the long-term 38.2% Fibonacci level was cited as still holding, supporting the broader uptrend.
A 5-month double top was noted, with a measured move target of 21,399, which sits below the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 22,494. The emphasis was that only daily closes, not intraday breaks, should be treated as confirmation.
Price action was expected to stay subdued and corrective until the US market opens. Weekly and monthly charts were described as leaning lower, and the week ahead was framed as potentially volatile.
We are still digesting the fallout from last week’s drone strike on Israel’s Eilat port, which has pushed Brent crude back above $95 a barrel for the first time since late 2025. This escalation is reigniting inflation fears that we thought were fading. The VIX, the market’s fear gauge, jumped over 25% last week to close at 18.5, its highest level this year.
This geopolitical shock, combined with February’s hotter-than-expected 3.5% CPI print, has put the Federal Reserve in a tough spot. Consequently, we’ve seen fed funds futures price out a May rate cut, with probabilities collapsing from over 70% earlier this month to just 25% today. This explains why the Dollar Index (DXY) is bid, holding firmly above the 105 level.
For Nasdaq traders, the structure looks increasingly heavy after forming a five-month double top near the 24,500 level back in October 2025 and again this February. We should watch for a weekly *close* below the long-term Fibonacci support at 22,494 to confirm a deeper correction towards 21,399. Buying puts or establishing bear put spreads could be a prudent way to hedge or speculate on this potential move.
The wide trading ranges in the S&P 500 and Dow suggest volatility will remain high, making pivot points critical for intraday trades. Meanwhile, the Kiwi dollar remains weak, trading below 0.5800 against the USD, after New Zealand’s GDP data from last quarter confirmed a technical recession. In this environment, we must be selective, focusing on clear technical structures rather than chasing broad market moves.
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