Gold (XAU/USD) rose for a second day on Tuesday and moved towards $4,800 after rebounding from one-week lows at $4,664 on Monday. Reports of possible new US–Iran negotiations supported risk aversion and lifted demand for precious metals versus the US Dollar.
Reuters reported that US and Iran delegations may be ready to resume talks in Pakistan this week. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Iran had called to “work for a deal”, and US Vice President JD Vance said on Tuesday that Tehran should “take the next step” in negotiations.
Gold Price Levels And Momentum
XAU/USD remains range-bound, with resistance around $4,850 and support near $4,620, the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March sell-off. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is above 50 but below 60, while the MACD is near the zero line.
A break above $4,850 (the April 8 high) could open $4,932, the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and resistance just above $5,000. A drop below $4,620 could lead to the March 26 low area near $4,350.
The technical analysis used an AI tool. The story was corrected on 14 April at 11:15 GMT after a misspelling about US–Iran negotiations.
We remember looking at the market back in April 2025, when gold was moving sideways. The price was trapped between support near $4,620 and a firm ceiling around $4,850. At that time, the main driver was speculation about peace talks, which created a hesitant market.
Inflation Driven Shift In The Trend
Today, the situation is different, with persistent inflation being the primary catalyst pushing gold towards the $5,200 level. The latest March 2026 Consumer Price Index data showed inflation at 3.8%, which was higher than the market expected. This reinforces gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices, providing a more solid foundation than the political rumors of last year.
For traders, this suggests a strategy of buying call options to capitalize on the upward momentum while keeping risk defined. Implied volatility is currently elevated at an 18% six-month high, indicating the market expects a significant price move. This makes bull call spreads an attractive option to help offset the increased cost of premiums.
We should also watch for any pullbacks, with the new critical support level now established near $5,050. A decisive break below this mark could lead to a sharp decline, reminding us of the quick sell-off we saw in late 2025. Buying protective put options with a strike price around $5,000 would be a sensible hedge for existing long positions.
The bullish long-term trend is further strengthened by consistent demand from large institutions. The World Gold Council recently reported that central banks were again net buyers in the first quarter of 2026, adding 250 tonnes to their reserves. This underlying demand creates a level of support that was not as apparent during the sideways market of 2025.
