Ford Motor Company recently reported its Q3 earnings, exceeding expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, up from the anticipated $0.35. This growth was mainly due to high demand for trucks and hybrid vehicles, which helped balance losses in their electric vehicle sector. Ford’s revenue climbed to $50.5 billion, exceeding analyst forecasts, despite a fire at a major supplier plant affecting the company’s full-year earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) guidance, potentially leading to a $2 billion loss. The company is adapting its strategy by moving electric vehicle production to Europe to cut costs and is benefiting from relaxed emissions regulations in the U.S. While the stock price is close to its highest point in 52 weeks, the average price target from analysts is still below current levels, indicating limited growth potential. This poses a challenge as economic trends and planning risks weigh against Ford’s 6.3% dividend yield and operational strength. From a technical standpoint, Ford’s share price is currently within wave (Y), and upcoming movements may impact its correction pattern. The current wave is creating a double correction, with a chance to rise above $13.97 as sellers aim to defend the $14.88 high. If prices surpass this barrier, it suggests that wave II has completed, pointing to a bullish trend. Buyers are heading into the $11.86–$10.52 range, which is vital for maintaining upward momentum. There’s a clear contrast between Ford’s strong Q3 results and the drastic downward revision of its full-year projections. The expected $2 billion hit from the Novelis supplier fire is a significant challenge, overshadowing strong truck and hybrid sales. This creates uncertainty, which is ideal for options strategies that can profit from defined price ranges or breakouts. Currently, we believe this rally is a temporary wave B, with a possible decline toward the $7.79–$6.05 area still expected. For traders looking for this move, the $14.88 level is crucial. Any options strategies, such as buying puts or creating bear call spreads with expirations in early 2026, should focus on the expectation that sellers will defend this high. If market momentum drives the stock decisively above $14.88, we must reconsider the bearish outlook. A breakout above this resistance would imply that the major correction may have concluded at the $8.36 low observed in 2024. This would prompt a move towards bullish strategies, like call debit spreads, to take advantage of a potential new upward trend. In the upcoming weeks, the critical area to watch is the support zone between $11.86 and $10.52. If buyers can hold this area, short-term bullish strategies might still have merit. However, caution is warranted, especially after October 2025 auto sales data showed a 2% decline year-over-year. A drop below this support, particularly below $10.52, would greatly increase the likelihood of revisiting the $8.36 low, supporting bearish strategies.

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