**EUR/USD Psychological Barrier** The euro-dollar pair has moved higher, closing just above 1.1600. While this may not seem like a big deal, there’s more at play. The option set to expire at 1.1650 is significant. This price level is more than just a number—it’s a psychological barrier that traders are closely monitoring. It may resist any further upward movement, especially if volatility remains low. If this happens, 1.1650 could act as a short-term ceiling. In this context, the stability of the dollar plays a key role, potentially limiting euro gains. For dollar-yen, the situation is more complex. After the pair was rejected by the 100-day moving average, it is now hovering near the 200-hour moving average at 145.10. This isn’t just a statistic; it’s a test of the pair’s short-term strength. Recent dollar weakness has added tension, and while the expiries at 144.50 and 145.00 aren’t huge in volume, they are significant because they align with these technical levels. With these barriers set, price movements are currently restricted as we approach the next trading period in Europe. **Trading Activity Within Range** Considering these elements—option expiry points, technical tests, and moderate momentum—trading is likely to continue within a narrow range until one of these levels is convincingly broken. We’ve noticed that when technical and option-related barriers combine, prices often move sideways, adjusting to position flows until a decisive action is taken. For now, small trades near these known boundaries are clearer than trying to force a breakout that doesn’t happen. As expiry times approach, the urge to anticipate moves before levels are broken can lead to frustrating swings. We’ve seen this pattern too often. It’s more effective to react than to predict, especially when directional flows are driven by time-sensitive factors instead of headlines or broader economic indicators. The best strategy is to stay tactical. Monitor traded volumes closely as expiry approaches. When levels align with periods of price hesitation, they tend to hold their ground. From a risk perspective, it’s also crucial that there are no conflicting patterns suggesting sudden shifts. This means that any retreat from key points—like 1.1650 for euro-dollar or just above 145 for dollar-yen—should be respected unless there is clear volume and follow-through that breaks this expectation. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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