Global equities rose 1.3% as markets responded to indications that Washington and Tehran may be close to an agreement, with reports pointing to a deal as soon as this weekend. The move favoured cyclicals, while defensives lagged and energy stocks were weaker. In the US, major benchmarks climbed, and the tone carried into Asian trading, where gains broadened across the region.
The prospective agreement is framed around reopening the Strait of Hormuz and securing assurances that Iran will not further develop its nuclear weapons programme. Oil prices fell 4.6% from yesterday morning to USD 88.8bbl, tracking the shift in perceived supply risk. The S&P 500 ended up 1.8% and the Nasdaq added 2.5%, while the Russell 2000 rose more than 3%. US equity futures were higher again, and South Korea’s KOSPI advanced more than 8%.
Positioning for a Risk-On Environment
Given the market’s strong positive reaction to a potential US-Iran agreement, we should position for a continued risk-on environment. We see value in buying call options on indices like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, as a confirmed deal this weekend could fuel another leg up. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has already dropped sharply to 13.5, its lowest point in months, suggesting traders are pricing out near-term risk.
The divergence between sectors provides a clear opportunity for pair trades using derivatives. We are favoring call options on cyclical sector ETFs, particularly industrials and technology, which are leading the rally. At the same time, we believe buying put options on energy sector ETFs is a prudent way to play the downside from falling oil prices.
The drop in Brent crude to below $89 a barrel is a direct consequence of the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Historically, de-escalation in this region removes a significant risk premium, and we saw a similar effect after the 2015 nuclear deal, which led to a sustained period of lower oil prices. We anticipate further weakness and are looking to sell crude oil futures contracts expiring in the next quarter.
Opportunities and Risks in High-Beta Markets
We should also pay attention to high-beta markets that are reacting strongly to this news. The Russell 2000’s outperformance indicates a broad appetite for risk, making options on its corresponding IWM ETF attractive. The surge in South Korea’s KOSPI highlights the benefit of lower energy costs for major importers, suggesting bullish derivative positions on other export-heavy Asian economies could also perform well.
However, this entire rally is built on the expectation of a deal being signed. Should the talks collapse, the market reversal would likely be swift and severe. We are therefore using defined-risk strategies, such as buying call spreads instead of outright calls, to limit our potential losses if the geopolitical situation deteriorates unexpectedly over the coming days.
