Gold futures are currently priced at $3,384.6, reflecting a 1.89% increase. This rise is primarily due to the rollover from August contracts to December ones. The outlook is bullish unless the price drops below $3,380, which would indicate a bearish trend. Important trading levels include a bullish zone above $3,383 and various profit-taking targets for both bullish and bearish strategies. For bullish partial profits, if the price remains above $3,383, targets are set at $3,391.8, near a liquidity zone, $3,397.6—which is below the July 25 point of control—and $3,406.6, under July 25’s value area high. If the market turns bearish, targets drop to $3,378.4, just above today’s 3rd lower VWAP deviation, with a further target of $3,351 near the July 9 value area low.

Trading Strategies For Swing Traders

Swing traders should watch the $3,346.5–$3,346.8 zone for potential reversals. Understanding liquidity pools, VWAP deviations, and points of control can enhance trading decisions. It is recommended that traders only take one position per direction in each session and adhere to established management rules for successful trading. The rollover from August to December contracts often influences prices due to calendar shifts. This forecast serves as a strategic guide, stressing the importance of discipline because futures trading carries high risks. As of July 30, 2025, gold futures sit around $3,385, awaiting the crucial FOMC press conference. Much of the recent price increase stems from the futures contract rollover, so it’s essential to avoid confusing this with genuine buying momentum. The Federal Reserve’s comments later today will shape the market’s immediate direction. The current economic climate makes the Fed’s decisions even more significant for gold. Recent June 2025 Consumer Price Index data shows inflation holding steady at 4.1%, reinforcing gold’s position as a hedge. However, this is tempered by a recent estimate indicating a mere 0.9% growth in Q2 2025 GDP, raising concerns about stagflation.

Wider Economic Context

Given this uncertainty, derivative traders should prepare for increased volatility. Options strategies that benefit from large price movements, like long straddles, could be effective in the coming sessions. The goal is to be prepared for volatility rather than betting on a specific direction before the Fed speaks. If the Fed adopts a hawkish approach to tackle inflation, a decisive drop below the $3,380 level could occur, likely pushing gold toward yesterday’s high-volume area around $3,371. A continued sell-off might even challenge the crucial swing zone near $3,346 in the weeks ahead. On the other hand, a dovish tone focused on growth concerns would be very bullish for gold. We’d look for the price to break through the $3,400 psychological barrier and test resistance at $3,406. Such a move would indicate that the market is prioritizing recession fears over inflation, which historically benefits gold. Reflecting on the rate cycles of 2022 and 2023, we’ve seen how Fed pivots or hints can drive multi-month trends. The price movements following today’s events could largely determine the trajectory for gold throughout August. Thus, any breakout from the current narrow range could serve as a significant trading signal for the upcoming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now