Gold hit a new all-time high following a strong rise that began last Friday. Although no specific reason is behind this jump, falling real yields since Powell’s dovish remarks have contributed to increasing gold prices. Now, attention is turning to upcoming US labor market data, including the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. Strong numbers could raise the likelihood of a September rate cut, which might put pressure on gold prices. In contrast, weaker data may push gold higher as it fuels expectations for a more dovish stance. Overall, gold is expected to keep rising as real yields are anticipated to fall further due to expected easing from the Federal Reserve. However, short-term hawkish rate movements could lead to price corrections. Technically, gold has broken out of a 4-month trading range, reaching a new high. Sellers might emerge aiming for support around 3,245, while buyers are pushing for even higher levels to gain momentum. On the 4-hour chart, an upward trendline supports buying momentum. Buyers are likely to take advantage of any price dips, while sellers are attempting to break this support level targeting 3,245. The 1-hour chart reveals a minor trendline providing support, with buyers defending this level for further price increases. Sellers are looking to break this support and target the next trendline around 3,438. Important US data releases this week include ISM Manufacturing PMI, Job Openings, ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI, and the NFP report. Gold reaching a new record high today, September 2nd, 2025, is a noteworthy milestone. This surge seems to be supported by falling real yields, with the 10-year real yield recently dropping to 1.1% following the Fed Chair’s dovish signals from the Jackson Hole symposium last month. The lack of a clear trigger for today’s increase suggests a technical breakout driven by momentum. The main focus now is on this week’s US labor market data, culminating in the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. We should approach this with caution, as the last jobs report in August 2025 was mixed, leading to uncertainty about the Fed’s future actions. These upcoming figures are crucial, especially since Q2 2025 GDP growth was confirmed at a sluggish 1.2%, raising the stakes for the Fed’s decision in September. For traders expecting a pullback, this new peak offers an opportunity to position for a drop towards the 3,245 support level. If upcoming data such as ISM reports or Friday’s NFP come in strong, this could lower the chances of an immediate rate cut. In this scenario, buying short-dated put options or selling call spreads above the current high could be effective strategies. Conversely, the broader trend appears positive as long as the Fed is likely to ease policy. Any dips caused by market fluctuations could serve as a buying opportunity for those with a longer outlook. A pullback toward the trendline support around 3,438 might be the perfect entry point for purchasing call options, betting that soft labor data will reinforce rate cut expectations. We must also remember how markets have reacted previously to changing rate expectations. There were significant gold corrections in the spring of 2024 when a series of hot inflation reports forced the Fed to delay its easing plans. Therefore, even with a positive outlook, we should prepare for short-term volatility and sharp reversals if the data challenges the dovish narrative.

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