Geopolitical Risks And Safe Haven Demand
Over the weekend, US forces targeted military sites on Iran’s Kharg Island, an oil export hub. Iran said it would retaliate against any US-linked oil facilities in the region. Rising tensions have pushed oil prices higher, adding to inflation worries. This has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, which can weigh on non-yielding assets such as Gold. Central bank decisions are due this week from the Fed, RBA, BoJ, ECB and BoE. Rates are expected to stay unchanged, except for the RBA, which is expected to raise rates again. Gold is currently caught in a tug-of-war, making directional bets risky. The conflict should be driving prices up, but fears that high oil prices will delay Fed rate cuts are pushing it down. We see this as an opportunity to trade volatility, possibly through straddles on gold futures or ETFs, which profit from a large price move in either direction.Policy Divergence And Cross Asset Trades
The attack on Iran’s Kharg Island is a clear bullish signal for oil prices. Historically, supply disruptions in the Middle East have led to sharp price spikes, and we expect this time to be no different. WTI crude futures have already jumped over 8% to $115 a barrel, so we believe buying near-term call options is the most direct way to trade the expected continuation of this trend over the next few weeks. The spike in oil will likely keep inflation sticky, supporting the market’s view that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates soon. With the last CPI reading for February 2026 coming in hotter than expected at 3.5%, the US dollar should remain strong. We would consider long positions in the US Dollar Index (DXY) through futures contracts. This mix of geopolitical tension and central bank uncertainty is a classic recipe for broad market fear. We remember the spike in the VIX during the Taiwan Strait tensions in late 2025, and a similar environment is brewing now. Buying call options on the VIX could serve as an effective hedge against a potential downturn in major equity indices like the S&P 500. While most central banks are on hold, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates, creating a clear policy divergence. This comes after Australian inflation remained stubbornly above 4% in the final quarter of 2025. This makes long Australian dollar positions attractive, particularly against currencies with dovish central banks like the Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY). Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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