Gold prices rose during Asian trading hours on Monday, reaching about $4,050. This uptick is linked to uncertainty about the US economy and speculation over a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. A weak private jobs report and a disappointing Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan have increased these expectations. Lower interest rates could reduce the cost of holding Gold, which does not generate interest, supporting its price. However, the potential end of the US government shutdown might decrease demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. A Senate vote could resolve the shutdown, possibly limiting Gold’s gains. Moreover, improved trade relations between the US and China might also exert downward pressure on Gold prices. Analysts are closely monitoring the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, due later this week, as well as US retail sales data expected on Friday.

Gold’s Bullish Momentum

Gold continues its bullish trend, staying above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average. If the positive sentiment persists, a rise above $4,161 and towards $4,200 is possible. On the other hand, a drop below $4,000 could lead to renewed selling pressure, potentially pushing the price down to $3,835 or even the 100-day EMA of $3,705. Gold serves as a store of value and a medium of exchange, making it a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty. Central banks, the largest holders of Gold, increased their reserves by 1,136 tonnes in 2022—the highest ever recorded. This trend is particularly strong in emerging economies like China and India. Gold’s price is also affected by geopolitical instability, economic downturns, and interest rate changes, creating an appealing diversification option against the US Dollar. As of November 10, 2025, Gold trades around $4,050 with a bullish outlook. The main driver is the rising expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, spurred by recent weak consumer sentiment data. This week’s US CPI and Retail Sales figures are crucial—either affirming this trend or causing a sudden reversal. For those optimistic about Gold, buying call options with strike prices targeting the $4,200 level could be wise. Choosing expiration dates in late December would provide ample time for market reactions to this week’s economic data and the Fed’s actions. The technical setup, with prices above the 100-day EMA and a favorable RSI, supports this upward trend.

Central Bank Support

This positive sentiment is backed by robust fundamental demand that shows no signs of fading. Central bank purchases remain a strong support, with recent data from the World Gold Council showing an addition of 350 tonnes to official reserves in Q3 2025. This trend of aggressive accumulation began in 2022, providing a solid price floor. It’s essential to prepare for potential risks, such as a finalized deal to end the government shutdown or further cooling of US-China trade tensions. To protect against sudden price drops, purchasing put options with strike prices just below the crucial $4,000 mark is a wise strategy. A decisive break below this level could trigger a swift decline toward the $3,835 support. We’ve seen this trend before—specifically in late 2023—when Gold surged over 10% in two months as markets anticipated the Fed’s shift toward rate cuts. This historical context suggests that if upcoming inflation data is softer than expected, Gold could make a sharp upward move. Thus, the risk-reward balance favors bullish positions in the near term. Given the uncertain nature of this week’s economic reports, expect increased volatility. A long straddle strategy—buying both a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiration—could be effective. This approach would benefit from significant price swings in either direction after the data, capitalizing on the inherent uncertainty. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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