Gold slid more than 3% on Wednesday after US inflation data kept expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates in play. XAU/USD traded at $4,130 after probing two-month lows near $4,105, with risk sentiment further strained by comments from US President Donald Trump about resuming attacks on Iran and reports of Iranian strikes on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
The May Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% year on year, the highest in three years, while energy prices increased 3.9% versus 3.8% in April; core CPI printed at 2.9% against 2.8% previously. Money markets continued to price a Federal Reserve rate rise late in the year, though implied tightening eased to 21 basis points from 25 bps on Monday. Oil and yields added pressure, with WTI up 2.62% to $91.00 a barrel and the US 10-year Treasury yield nearly two basis points higher at 4.536%. Attention turns to May PPI, seen at 6.4% from 6% with core PPI at 5.4% from 5.2%, while jobless claims are forecast to dip to 219K from 225K for the week ending 6 June; charts show support at $4,098, then $4,000 and $3,886, with resistance at the 200-day SMA near $4,443 and $4,500, as RSI sits oversold but above 20. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022.
Bearish Case for Gold and Market Dynamics
Given the current market dynamics, we see a clear bearish case for gold in the coming weeks. The combination of persistent inflation and rising geopolitical tensions that are boosting oil prices creates a difficult environment for non-yielding assets. Therefore, our strategy will be to position for further downside in XAU/USD.
The recent US CPI print of 4.2% is the main driver, reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool is now indicating a greater than 70% probability of at least one more rate hike by the end of the year, which will continue to strengthen the US Dollar and pressure gold. We will be closely watching the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) for further confirmation of this inflationary trend.
Strategies and Key Levels to Watch
The conflict with Iran is having an unusual effect, as the resulting surge in WTI crude to over $91 a barrel is feeding inflation fears more than it is boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal. Historically, similar oil shocks, like those in the 1970s, have led to aggressive monetary tightening, which is a significant headwind for gold. This dynamic is making US Treasuries, with the 10-year yield now at 4.536%, a more attractive safe-haven alternative.
In response, we are looking at buying put options on gold, specifically targeting strike prices below the critical $4,098 support level. A decisive break of this year-to-date low would open the door for a much larger move down towards the $4,000 psychological level. We believe this offers a defined-risk way to capitalize on the expected volatility and downward momentum.
We must also monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has recently climbed above 106, adding another layer of pressure. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold conditions, it has not yet hit extreme levels, suggesting there is still room for sellers to push prices lower. A reversal would only be considered if gold were to reclaim the 200-day moving average near $4,443, which seems unlikely for now.
