Goldman Sachs keeps its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 at $56 per barrel, even after OPEC+ announced plans to boost production. The bank believes OPEC+ will stop increasing supply any further. This expectation is based on the rising oil stockpiles in OECD countries, which may discourage the group from producing more.

Brent Crude Forecast Remains Unchanged

We are maintaining our Brent crude oil forecast at $56 per barrel for 2026. This suggests a bearish long-term view as of August 2025. This outlook is based on the idea that OPEC+ is likely to pause any additional production increases. The main reason for this pause is the significant rise in oil stockpiles in OECD nations. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration for July 2025 shows that OECD commercial oil stocks increased by over 12 million barrels. This rise has pushed inventories slightly above the five-year average for the first time since the supply tightness in 2024. This trend indicates that global oil supply is starting to outpace consumption. In the coming weeks, this situation creates a trading environment with limited upside for crude oil prices. While an OPEC+ pause may prevent a sharp price drop, high inventories will likely cap any significant price increases. Therefore, we expect trading to remain flat or gradually decline.

Trading Strategies and Market Outlook

Traders in derivatives should consider strategies that benefit from sideways movements or slight declines. One effective method is selling out-of-the-money call spreads on October 2025 contracts to collect premiums. This strategy takes advantage of time decay if Brent oil prices do not rise above recent highs. For those looking to prepare for a possible long-term price drop, buying put options with later expiration dates, like those for March 2026, could be wise. This aligns with the view that prices will eventually head towards $56 per barrel, allowing traders to ignore short-term volatility while maintaining a focus on the overall forecast. Currently, the market finds itself between potential producer discipline and weakening demand fundamentals. Traders should keep a close watch on upcoming weekly inventory reports and any announcements from OPEC+ members for signals of change. The key is to avoid getting caught in a short-term rally while the overall trend points downward. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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