Goldman Sachs has updated its forecasts for US gas prices for late 2025. The prediction for November and December has changed from $4.50 to $4.00 per MMBtu. Meanwhile, the September and October forecast fell by $0.55 to $3.35 per MMBtu. Despite these changes, Goldman Sachs is optimistic about 2026, keeping its price forecast at $4.60 per MMBtu. This is much higher than the current forward prices of $3.81. The bank recommends holding long positions in US gas for April 2026.

Forecast Changes

Goldman Sachs says these adjustments are due to expected lower demand in the short term and a good supply-demand balance for the medium term. We’re seeing price forecasts for the rest of 2025 go down because of weaker demand expectations. The outlook for September and October has dropped to around $3.35/MMBtu due to strong supply. Recent EIA data from mid-August 2025 shows natural gas storage is over 12% above the five-year average, providing a solid buffer as we head into winter. For the next few weeks, this suggests caution for long positions on contracts expiring late in 2025. With dry gas production staying strong above 103 Bcf/d, optimism for winter prices might be too high. This situation could benefit strategies that focus on range-bound trading or selling premiums on winter contracts.

Opportunity in 2026

On the flip side, the medium-term outlook looks promising, showing a clear opportunity for the future. The price forecast for 2026 remains at $4.60/MMBtu, which is a significant difference from the current forward price of about $3.81. This gap indicates that the market may be undervaluing the expected changes next year. We believe this optimism for 2026 is based on a big increase in demand from new LNG export facilities, like Golden Pass and Plaquemines, which will become operational through 2026. This expected rise in demand is similar to the market tightness seen in 2022 when a surge in global demand revealed supply limits and drove prices up. The expectation is that increasing exports will more than offset any slack in the domestic market. The best strategy is to look beyond the short-term softness and develop long positions in 2026 contracts. Specifically, a long position in April 2026 is appealing as it allows traders to prepare for the tighter supply-demand balance before the summer 2026 injection season. This approach lets investors take advantage of a positive medium-term outlook while the market focuses on the well-supplied 2025 scenario. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now