Hedera’s HBAR token has taken a major hit, dropping over 70% from its peak of nearly $0.39 earlier this year. Hedera runs a decentralized public network using a distinct hashgraph consensus method. Right now, technical factors are more pressing than the technology itself. The falling trendline, which acts as a ceiling, has led to a continuous drop in price. This decline follows a step-like pattern that trend traders keep an eye on. HBAR is now sitting just above the $0.095-0.10 range, which is a critical support level for potential price swings. Even if HBAR rebounds, there are still significant hurdles for buyers. They need to reclaim $0.125 and overcome the falling trendline. If it breaks below the $0.095 support, that could be risky, as there isn’t clear support below that. Traders thinking about a long position should watch for positive price movements. A strong daily close above $0.105 with high volume would be a good sign. It’s wise to set stop-loss orders below $0.09, aiming for the $0.125 resistance. For those with a bearish view, a clear break below $0.095 on high volume could suggest opening short positions, given that the overall downtrend continues. Currently, HBAR is testing a crucial support zone between $0.095 and $0.10 following a significant drop from its highs earlier in 2025. This zone is a key point, and the next few weeks will likely shape its direction for the first quarter of 2026. The falling trendline from the peak is still the biggest obstacle to any lasting price increase. Data shows that Open Interest in HBAR perpetual futures has risen over 15% in the last two weeks, indicating that traders are preparing for a volatile move. Additionally, funding rates have turned slightly negative on major exchanges, suggesting an increase in short positions betting on a drop from this support. If buyers can defend the $0.10 level, this might lead to a short squeeze. For those expecting a bounce, buying call options with a strike price around $0.12 could offer leveraged exposure with manageable risk. A more aggressive approach would be to enter long futures positions if we see a solid daily close above $0.105, with a stop-loss just below $0.09. The main target for this trade would be the $0.125 resistance. On the flip side, if market weakness continues, a drop below $0.095 could lead to a sharp sell-off. Traders might prepare by purchasing put options or planning short futures entries on a strong break of that support. Looking back at similar market situations in late 2024, not holding such a key level often resulted in a quick 20-25% drop before finding the next support. Despite recent news about a major supply chain platform adopting Hedera, the price has not reacted strongly, indicating significant selling pressure. With implied volatility reaching a 90-day high, options are pricey. This makes strategies that sell volatility, like short strangles, attractive for traders who believe HBAR will stay within its key levels.

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