The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices in the United States exceeded expectations in November, showing a 1.4% growth compared to last year. This is better than the 1.2% forecast and indicates strong demand in the housing market. At the same time, the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in 2022 as people await the Federal Reserve’s decision. The Australian dollar is gaining support from expected interest rate hikes, reflecting changes in major currency pairs.

Gold Rally

Gold has been on a seven-day rally, holding steady at around $5,100 per troy ounce. This rise is driven by the weak US dollar and ongoing uncertainties in trade policies and global risks. Bitcoin has experienced less buying pressure and is stabilizing near $88,000. It had an intraday high but has fluctuated due to lower hashrates influenced by a winter storm. Ripple (XRP) is facing pressure and is trading at about $1.88. Ongoing concerns about its technical outlook affect its performance, even though demand for ETFs remains steady. The overall financial landscape is influenced by changes in key global currencies and commodities. The ‘Sell America’ trend is gaining momentum, suggesting a continued strategy to bet against the US dollar. Using derivatives like put options on dollar-indexed ETFs or shorting dollar futures could be effective ways to engage with this trend. This sentiment appears to be solidifying as the Federal Reserve’s decision approaches this week.

Housing Market Resilience

The strong Case-Shiller home price data from November 2025 adds complexity to the overall weak dollar narrative. Housing prices have proven to be surprisingly resilient, with national prices increasing by 4.8% year-over-year as of late 2025. This ongoing strength may complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, making bets on increased volatility through options a wise strategy. With the Euro aiming for 1.2000, call options on EUR/USD could offer a solid risk-reward opportunity, benefiting from the dollar’s decline. Likewise, GBP/USD is trending toward 1.3800, making long positions through futures or calls appealing. This aligns with the broader market sentiment from late 2025 that the European Central Bank may be less aggressive with rate cuts than the Fed. The continued rise in gold reflects both the weakening dollar and persistent fears about trade policies. There are similarities to the 2019-2020 period when similar factors pushed precious metals higher. Traders might think about using call options on gold futures or related ETFs to capitalize on potential gains while managing risks. In the equity markets, we are seeing a significant divide, with technology stocks outperforming while industrials and healthcare lag behind. This trend mirrors what was observed throughout much of 2023, where a small group of large-cap tech companies drove index gains. A pair trade, going long on Nasdaq 100 futures and short on Dow Jones futures, could effectively capitalize on this widening performance gap. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now