**Commodities and Cryptocurrencies** Inflation in the Eurozone hit 2.2% in September, largely due to temporary factors like energy prices. As these factors fade, we may see a drop in inflation as the year progresses. The European Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates steady in light of these developments. Australia’s trade balance for August has fallen sharply, indicating a weakening economic outlook. This suggests a bearish trend for the Australian dollar, prompting us to consider strategies such as buying put options on the AUD/USD pair. This month’s surplus of A$1.8 billion is a significant decrease from over A$15 billion in 2023, highlighting lower demand for key commodities. A major influence in global markets is the ongoing US government shutdown, which is weakening the US Dollar. As long as the shutdown persists, the dollar is expected to struggle against major currencies. We are now entering the second week of this shutdown; the previous shutdown from 2018-2019 lasted 35 days, so we should brace for increased volatility if a resolution isn’t reached soon. **US Dollar and Global Markets** The weakness of the dollar is helping the Euro and the Pound, with the EUR/USD rallying above 1.1700. Although the European Central Bank is keeping rates steady at 3.0%, the dollar’s struggles are giving the pair a significant boost. This makes long positions in EUR/USD and GBP/USD futures appealing as a direct response to the effects of the shutdown. Gold is currently the main safe-haven asset, with prices nearing $4,000 per ounce. The uncertainty in the US is driving this rise, leading traders to adopt a “buy-the-dips” mindset. Any minor price drops can be seen as a chance to enter long positions through call options or futures contracts. In the upcoming weeks, the best trades appear to favor bets against US stability and predictions of ongoing global economic changes. This means leaning towards assets like gold while being cautious with currencies affected by slowing trade, such as the Australian dollar. The biggest risk to this strategy is a sudden resolution of the US shutdown, which could lead to a sharp market reversal. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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