Canada’s retail sales for August met expectations, rising by 1% from the previous month. This suggests steady consumer spending. Globally, market trends vary. The USD/CHF dropped as the Swiss National Bank ruled out negative interest rates, while the GBP/USD fell as lower UK inflation increased expectations for a more cautious Bank of England.

Commodity Influence On Currencies

Strong commodity prices have helped the AUD/USD climb. On the other hand, despite higher oil prices, the USD/CAD remained stable because of a stronger US Dollar. Gold prices were steady around $4,150, partly due to caution ahead of the US CPI data. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin and Ethereum showed signs of breaking out, fueled by renewed risk appetite. Japan’s new Prime Minister, Takaichi, might impact the Yen if there are policy mismatches. Aster also saw a small increase, signaling positive trends in the crypto market. In 2025, several brokers are noted for their specialized offerings, including low spreads, high leverage, and regional advantages. Broker evaluations cover markets such as Forex, Gold, and cryptocurrency, giving traders a variety of options. We noted that Canadian retail sales were at 1% for August, a solid figure that matched expectations. However, as of October 23, 2025, this data is less relevant. Preliminary data for September points to a slowdown to about 0.2%, indicating potential economic cooling as winter approaches.

Interest Rate Speculations

This trend puts pressure on the Bank of Canada, which has kept its key interest rate at 4.75% for the past two quarters. Options markets now suggest more than a 50% chance of a rate cut in the first half of 2026, which is starting to weigh on the Canadian dollar. Despite the Bank’s cautious stance, strong crude oil prices continue to support the loonie. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has been trading consistently above $90 per barrel due to tight supply and increased global travel demand. This creates a tug-of-war for the USD/CAD pair. For derivative traders, this uncertainty presents an opportunity. Instead of making a simple bet on USD/CAD, consider strategies that may benefit from significant price swings in either direction. With rising volatility expected, options strategies like long straddles or strangles could effectively capitalize on upcoming movements. We should also monitor the US side, as the Federal Reserve is sending dovish signals. In 2024, the Fed paused its aggressive interest rate hikes, and Fed funds futures currently suggest a 60% chance of a US rate cut by mid-2026. This competition to ease between central banks may dampen a major breakout in the currency pair for now. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now