The United States export price index rose 3.1% year on year in December, down from 3.3% in the previous reading.
This is a 0.2 percentage point slowdown in the annual rate. The data refers to export prices measured by the export price index.
Export Price Inflation Eases
The December 2025 report shows the U.S. Export Price Index easing to 3.1%, which supports a broader trend of slowing price pressure. This suggests the strong dollar and last year’s tight monetary policy are helping cool an important part of inflation. Overall, it points to a shifting economic backdrop.
This result also aligns with the January 2026 Consumer Price Index report, where core inflation fell to 2.8%—its lowest level since mid-2024. With disinflation continuing, more Federal Reserve rate hikes look less likely. We should prepare for a more neutral, or even dovish, stance from the Fed.
With that in mind, we expect the U.S. dollar may weaken against currencies backed by more hawkish central banks. For example, the European Central Bank kept its key rate at 3.5% last week and highlighted ongoing concerns about wage growth. This policy gap can support strategies such as buying EUR/USD call options or using futures over the coming weeks.
This backdrop can also benefit interest rate products. As inflation cools, bond yields often face downward pressure. A similar move occurred in the second half of 2023, when early disinflation signals helped drive a strong bond rally. As a result, buying call options on long-duration Treasury bond ETFs may be a sensible approach.
Equity Strategy Implications
For equities, a less aggressive Fed is generally supportive—especially for growth and technology stocks. One approach is buying call options on major indices such as the Nasdaq-100 to capture potential gains. Another is selling out-of-the-money put options, which can benefit if the market stays stable or rises.
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