The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in February, up from 89.0 in January. The January figure was revised higher from 84.5 to 89.0.
This gain came after a drop in January. Expectations improved, with fewer consumers feeling negative about the future. Four of the five index components increased.
Consumer Confidence Trend Overview
The index is still below its four-year high of 112.8, reached in November 2024.
After the report, the US Dollar kept recovering. The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved toward 98.00, near multi-week highs.
A year ago, US consumer confidence showed a small rebound, rising to 91.2 in February 2025. The recovery was fragile and still far below the late-2024 peak. Even so, it helped lift the DXY toward 98.00. The key message then was caution, because sentiment remained weak.
Today, the picture looks different. The latest January 2026 data shows confidence has risen steadily to 103.5. This suggests consumers held up better after the stubborn inflation seen in mid-2025. The gradual improvement is a stronger base than the tentative rebound from twelve months ago.
Trading And Risk Considerations
Against this backdrop, the US dollar has stayed strong. The DXY is now trading consistently above 104.0, as the Federal Reserve has signaled no near-term rate cuts. For derivatives traders, this may support buying call options on the dollar index (UUP) on meaningful dips. The economic case for a strong dollar is clearer now than it was in early 2025.
A stronger consumer outlook can also support equity markets, especially consumer discretionary stocks. With confidence trending higher, spending may remain solid, which can help corporate earnings. Consider selling cash-secured puts on consumer-focused ETFs like XLY to collect premium, taking advantage of lower market fear.
Volatility also matters. In February 2025, the VIX was high, showing uncertainty about the economy. Today, the VIX has been in the low teens, which suggests the market is more complacent. That can make protection cheaper, so consider buying medium-term VIX call options as a hedge in case unexpected shocks disrupt this more stable consumer backdrop.
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