Brazil’s retail sales data for June shows a slight decline of 0.1% compared to the previous month. This is lower than the expected growth of 0.7%. The EUR/USD remains stable above 1.1700, supported by a weaker USD and a positive risk mood following July’s inflation reports. The GBP/USD has climbed to multi-week highs, exceeding 1.3550, driven by shifting risk sentiments and anticipated remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Gold is experiencing modest gains, trading above $3,350, but is struggling to gain momentum. While there is optimism about a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, improving risk sentiment limits these potential gains.

Artificial Intelligence Tokens Gain Traction

AI tokens are gaining popularity as the altcoin market recovers, highlighted by Perplexity’s $34.5 billion offer for Google Chrome. Notable AI tokens like Bittensor (TAO), Near Protocol (NEAR), and Render (RNDR) are leading the way. The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%, but officials indicate that more cuts may be coming to an end. Concerns linger about inflation remaining above target levels, which could influence the bank’s policy. The date is August 13, 2025. With the EUR/USD staying strong above 1.1700, we see a trading opportunity due to a weakening dollar and growing European confidence. This perspective is backed by the recent optimistic German ZEW Economic Sentiment for August 2025. We think that buying call options with a strike price around 1.1800 over the coming weeks offers a good risk-reward scenario. The British Pound shows strength, breaking above 1.3550 even after the Bank of England’s rate cut to 4%. The market seems to overlook this cut, focusing on comments suggesting the easing cycle may be ending. This is supported by last week’s UK jobs report for July 2025, which showed steady wage growth. Therefore, we are considering bull call spreads on the GBP/USD to benefit from this upward trend while managing premium costs.

Gold’s Sideways Movement Presents Opportunity

Gold’s sideways trading above $3,350 offers a unique opportunity. A dovish Federal Reserve provides stability for gold, but improving risk sentiment is preventing significant price increases, leading to lower volatility. Implied volatility on gold options has dropped to a six-month low of just 14%, making it appealing to sell premium through iron condors with strikes outside a $3,300 to $3,400 range. Brazil’s disappointing retail sales in June signal trouble for its domestic economy, contrasting with the strength seen in developed markets. This weakness could indicate downturns for the Brazilian Real, which typically struggles during domestic economic challenges. We are closely monitoring the USD/BRL pair, as buying call options could be a speculative strategy if it surpasses the critical 5.30 resistance level tested earlier in 2025. The rise of AI tokens like NEAR and RNDR shows renewed speculative interest, fueled by major developments like the Perplexity offer. Notably, open interest in perpetual futures for these leading AI assets surged over 40% in the first two weeks of August 2025, reflecting strong trader confidence. Given the high volatility, buying long-dated call options on these tokens will allow us to take advantage of potential significant gains while clearly managing our maximum risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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