In June 2025, China’s exports measured in yuan increased by 7.2% compared to last year, up from 6.3%. Imports also grew, rising by 2.3% year-on-year, recovering from a previous decline of 2.1%. The trade balance for June was 743.5 billion yuan, the same as the previous month. From January to June, exports in yuan consistently grew by 7.2% on a year-over-year basis. So far, this article provides a clear picture of China’s external trade momentum in the first half of 2025. The steady export growth of 7.2% is a notable improvement, especially with rising overseas demand and improved price competitiveness. On the other hand, import figures show a modest recovery—moving from a decrease in May to an increase in June—indicating stronger domestic spending or targeted inventory restocking by manufacturers. Li’s data reflects that China’s trade activity is stable, though it’s not accelerating broadly. The unchanged trade surplus of 743.5 billion yuan for June suggests that demand and supply are relatively balanced in external accounts, at least for now. For those analyzing market trends through contracts and price variations, the steady growth in exports is significant. This consistency over six months could lead to expectations of sustained foreign currency inflows. For those holding hedged positions tied to yuan movements or Asian manufacturing, this stability offers reassurance and indicates a lower risk of major export disruptions in the third quarter. Zhao’s comments hinted at a potential stop-start recovery for imports, but June’s improvements seem to counter that view. If factories are importing more intermediate goods, it supports higher utilization rates in the future. This could benefit futures linked to iron ore, industrial metals, or soft commodities, especially with China as a primary importer, providing opportunities for long strategies as long as external factors don’t undermine them. From our perspective, while a bounce back in domestic demand might not be evident yet, the situation likely stabilized in the second quarter. This provides more confidence in input pricing. Seasonal factors will soon decline, but the consistency seen in June may lead to less volatility, particularly in producer hedging against margins or fluctuations. There’s also a currency aspect. Steady foreign receipts for exporters boost conversions to yuan, especially if the currency basket remains stable or experiences slight downward pressure from the dollar. For those managing exposure in offshore renminbi contracts, a strategy leaning towards neutrality or yield-cushioned carries makes sense until new data changes the landscape. Current liquidity levels have not tightened significantly, reducing the risk of sudden increases in margin requirements for long yuan trades. Looking ahead, the organized pace of trade data, both exports and imports, supports bracketed positions. High reactions to single-month data may not be reasonable unless accompanied by unexpected movements in policy or declines in external demand. It’s essential to closely monitor volumes for confirmation. Those using spreads to assess market sentiment might focus on ratios that show relative resilience, especially if major US or European data triggers a quick shift in risk attitude. In conclusion, the stable trade gap suggests a steady contribution of trade to the currency’s overall value. If monetary or fiscal policies align with these flows, positions related to shifts in interest rates should be balanced by considerations of commodity prices as they continue to affect imports in the third quarter.

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