India’s forex reserves rose from $697.94 billion to $702.78 billion in June 2023, indicating the country’s strong financial health. EUR/USD remains stable, staying below 1.1800. With US markets closed for the July 4th holiday, this currency pair is set to end the week positively.

GBP/USD Price Action

The GBP/USD pair is fluctuating around 1.3650. Trading is light due to ongoing political uncertainty in the UK. The market showed little volatility with the US markets inactive. Gold prices are stable at around $3,300 per troy ounce as speculation grows about potential interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, which could affect the future of this precious metal. While geopolitical worries ease, tariff risks continue. There are still concerns about possible aggressive tariff increases proposed by Donald Trump, though previously announced high rates may not return. Attention is focused on developments in Asia and the US, especially recent legislative actions. Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” has passed the Senate, stirring reactions and discussions.

Trading EUR/USD in 2025

When trading EUR/USD in 2025, various competitive brokers can offer quick execution and robust platforms that are suitable for both beginner and expert traders in the Forex market. India’s forex reserves surpassing $700 billion again highlights a solid external balance. While this may not directly influence currency traders, the gradual increase often leads to better exchange rate management. With more dollars available, the rupee faces less pressure from external shocks, whether from commodities or geopolitical events. While this isn’t a buying signal, it’s important to consider when making positions related to the rupee or correlated assets. In major currency pairs, EUR/USD is stable below 1.1800, aligning with broader US dollar trends. The US Independence Day holiday prevented major movements midweek. The pair’s ability to hold its recent gains suggests that the market is currently leaning towards a weaker dollar narrative for the summer. Inflation expectations and commodity inputs affecting European macro data haven’t disrupted this trend. If you’re trading options or futures based on EUR/USD, maintaining long positions seems favorable given recent buying activity. For sterling, GBP/USD hovering around 1.3650 shows a different scenario. Price action has struggled to break out of this range due to political standstills and low liquidity. The pound’s earlier gains have faded, leading to a more cautious market stance. High hedging costs indicate caution, but if recent UK political developments clear some uncertainty, we may see a gradual return to pound-related investments, potentially reshaping future trends. In the metals market, gold’s trading range at $3,300 per ounce reflects a tug-of-war between interest-rate expectations and demand for safe-haven assets. The market is currently indecisive. Persistent US core inflation complicates forecasts for the Federal Reserve. Traders with long-term gold contracts must navigate the uncertainties of an election year alongside fluctuating interest rate expectations. We’ve noticed an increase in call volume around $3,350 strikes, suggesting some traders are betting on a US policy change later this year. On the geopolitical side, while tensions have eased for now, market players are still wary of possible trade policy issues. The risk of new tariffs is not fully priced in but is present in the options market through skewed implied volatilities. Recent US legislative successes, like Trump’s large-scale bill passing the Senate, have sparked discussion about potential effects on trade and technology. How this impacts sector rotation in FX markets is still unfolding, but early signs in derivatives show a slight tilt towards hedging positions linked to Asia. For 2025, having access to deep liquidity and fast execution is critical, especially for those trading short-term shifts in euro or dollar volatility. In periods with tighter spreads and quicker reversals—especially during calendar roll periods—having platforms that can handle high volume is essential. We’ve noted that algorithmic trading flows haven’t reached extremes yet, although some early indicators show stretched RSI levels. As we approach quarterly rebalancing—a time known for erratic movements, particularly in low participation sessions—it’s wise to maintain a flexible trading structure, preferably with set stop-losses but also some breathing room. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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