London mid-session futures were mixed ahead of New York. S&P 500 futures were above the central pivot (CP) and point of control (POC). Dow futures were below CP. Nasdaq futures were below CP and sitting near lower-gate support. Dow (YM) levels were: upper range 50,360, CP 49,606, lower range 48,852, and POC 49,360. Gates were 49,784–50,000 (upper) and 49,428–49,208 (lower), with price at 49,548.

Dow Key Decision Level

YM rotated up from POC toward CP, making 49,606 the key decision level. Holding above CP points to 49,784–50,000. Failing at CP keeps focus on 49,428–49,208. S&P 500 (ES) levels were: upper range 7,010.00, CP 6,866.50, lower range 6,640.50, and POC 6,872.50. Gates were 6,909.75–6,936.50 (upper) and 6,803.25–6,753.50 (lower), with price at 6,905.75. ES held above CP and POC and pushed into the upper half of the map. Holding CP targets 6,909.75–6,936.50. Losing CP shifts attention to 6,803.25–6,753.50. Nasdaq (MNQ/ENQ) levels were: upper range 28,014.75, CP 25,514.25, lower range 23,434.00, and POC 24,848.00. Gates were 26,104.00–26,469.00 (upper) and 25,023.00–24,719.00 (lower), with price at 24,932.

New York Open Focus

Nasdaq held above POC but stayed below CP near the lower gate. Recent rotation showed selling pressure. A move above 25,514.25 opens 26,104–26,469. Continued weakness keeps focus on 25,023–24,719, with risk of a deeper rotation if that area breaks. For the New York open, the focus was on acceptance or rejection at CP and the gate zones, especially in the first 15–30 minutes. Conditions improve if ES holds CP/POC, YM takes 49,606, and Nasdaq holds the lower gate and rotates back toward CP. The market is split: the S&P 500 is leading, while the Nasdaq is lagging. This divergence suggests caution. Conviction is not consistent across indexes, so it may be best to avoid large, one-way directional bets until they line up. This separation looks like the rotational market seen in late 2025, when inflation fears returned. The January 2026 jobs report was stronger than expected, with 215,000 jobs added. That makes near-term rate cuts less likely, which can pressure rate-sensitive tech stocks. This backdrop supports the current weakness in the Nasdaq. For the S&P 500, the strategy favors the long side as long as price holds above the key pivot at 6,866. One options approach is selling put spreads below this level to lean into its relative strength. If the S&P 500 loses this support, it may signal the broader market is rolling over. Because the Nasdaq is the weakest index, watch whether it fails at its pivot at 25,514. A failure to reclaim that level could set up short opportunities, such as buying puts aimed at a breakdown below the lower support gate near 24,719. A break there would suggest downside momentum is building. The S&P 500/Nasdaq divergence also makes a pairs trade attractive over the next few weeks. One idea is long S&P 500 futures (ES) and short Nasdaq futures (NQ) to focus on relative performance. This could work if current conditions persist, including a VIX near a moderate 16.5. The Dow is the swing factor. It is still below its pivot at 49,606, so it remains neutral until it either reclaims that level to confirm strength or fails and follows the Nasdaq lower. Until then, it may suit short-term range traders. Near term, watch for confirmation or failure of the divergence. If the Nasdaq stabilizes and the Dow retakes its pivot, the broader rally can continue. If they stay weak and the S&P 500 loses support, be ready for a wider defensive shift. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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