Indonesia’s inflation rate for November fell to 0.17%, down from 0.28% in October. This decrease shows that prices rose more slowly in November than in the previous month. In other financial news, the USD/INR has hit an all-time high due to continuous foreign capital leaving India. The Japanese Yen is strong, near a two-week high against the USD, thanks to different economic outlooks from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve.

Crude Oil Prices Trend

Crude oil prices are rising as European markets open. The European Central Bank has kept interest rates steady. The AUD/USD has dropped below 0.6550, impacted by weak Chinese PMI data. Gold prices are climbing, nearing a six-week high, as expectations grow for a dovish Federal Reserve. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple each started December with losses over 4%. Ripple remains within a narrow trading range, indicating ongoing competition in the market. The November FAFO market experienced volatility, but traders eventually found stability. Financial experts expect optimal brokers will emerge in 2025 across various regions and currency pairs.

Market Position in December 2025

As we begin December 2025, the market strongly anticipates a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Traders are expecting an 87% chance of a 25 basis point cut next week. This mindset suggests that it’s unwise to challenge the Fed’s dovish direction, influencing nearly all asset classes as the year ends. This expectation puts pressure on the US Dollar, benefiting non-yielding assets like gold. Gold is trading close to a six-week high, aiming for the $2,450 mark, a level we haven’t sustained since the third quarter of 2025. Derivative traders should be ready for increased volume in options betting on further gold gains and dollar declines. In the currency markets, the European Central Bank believes its interest rates are suitable, highlighting a clear policy difference compared to the Fed. This supports the EUR/USD pair. The Japanese Yen is also stable, with the Bank of Japan’s outlook differing from the Fed’s easing approach. This makes long positions in the euro or yen against the US dollar a key strategy in the coming weeks. In emerging markets, Indonesia’s latest inflation data suggests some stability in a volatile area. The fall in month-on-month inflation to 0.17% in November has brought the annual rate down to a manageable 2.4%. This gives Bank Indonesia more flexibility and could make the Indonesian Rupiah a safer option compared to other regional currencies. However, risks remain evident, necessitating caution. A disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which recently dropped to a contractionary 49.4, is weighing on the Australian dollar. Additionally, ongoing foreign outflows from India have pushed the USD/INR to record highs. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are showing strong momentum, which could complicate the global inflation situation. The rise in WTI prices is linked to market concerns over tighter OPEC+ supply quotas set to begin in the first quarter of 2026. Higher energy costs could challenge the dovish stance of central banks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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