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    In November, job cuts in the United States fell to 71,321 from 153,074.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Dec 4, 2025

    Challenges for Gold and Cryptocurrency

    Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple have stalled in their recovery after two days. The initial boost from Vanguard Group lifting its crypto ETF ban is fading. Ripple is struggling to break through a key resistance level and may drop further due to ongoing market feelings. EUR/USD remains steady above 1.1650 following positive US data, while GBP/USD stays strong above 1.3350, despite challenges for the USD. XRP continues to face pressure, even with solid on-chain activity and stable ETF inflows. The Federal Reserve’s policy is complicated. It includes shifts from possible rate cuts to pauses, with more cuts expected in December. Understanding the Fed’s strategy requires careful market analysis.

    Labor Market and Inflation

    There has been a notable decrease in job cuts announced, which should typically boost the US Dollar. However, the market seems to overlook this good news. Traders are more focused on the Federal Reserve and growing expectations of a rate cut this month. Recent labor data supports this outlook. The November Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a solid 199,000 job gain, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.7%. Yet, despite a strong job market, the dollar continues to weaken against the Euro and the Pound. This is due to the ongoing decline in inflation over the last year. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October 2025 reported a drop in headline inflation to 3.1%, moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target. This allows the central bank to consider easing its policies to help the economy stabilize. Market expectations reflect this belief. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders see over a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. This makes derivatives betting against the US Dollar, like buying call options on EUR/USD, seem appealing. We’ve seen similar patterns before. In 2019, the Fed cut rates for “insurance” even when the labor market was strong, successfully prolonging the economic cycle. Current market sentiment indicates traders think the Fed might use a similar strategy now. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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