New Zealand’s ANZ commodity price index dropped by 1.6% in November, following a 0.3% decline in October. This change is significant for those watching market trends, as it shows a shift in commodity prices. Other updates include a slight increase in GBP/USD, now above 1.3200, due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut impacting the US Dollar. Meanwhile, gold prices hold steady above $4,200, supported by a weaker dollar linked to dovish Fed expectations.

Australian Dollar Gains

On the currency side, the Australian Dollar reached its highest point since late October against a falling US Dollar. Bitcoin also surged, trading above $92,000, following Vanguard’s decision to allow crypto Exchange Traded Funds on its platform. The White House is preparing for a possible Supreme Court ruling on tariffs related to the International Economic Emergency Powers Act. Bitcoin remains above $87,000 amid contractions in the US manufacturing sector and potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. The article also reviews the best brokers for 2025, providing insights into various trading platforms. Since all markets carry risks, thorough personal research is essential before making investment choices, as advised in the included disclaimer.

Weaker New Zealand Dollar

The decline in New Zealand’s commodity prices is accelerating, suggesting a weaker New Zealand Dollar. The recent 1.6% drop is the sharpest since the downturn of late 2024, largely due to a 4.2% decrease in dairy prices at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction. Consider purchasing NZD/USD put options or shorting NZD futures to take advantage of this downward trend. A weaker US Dollar seems to be the prevailing theme for the coming weeks as speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut grows. The futures market now shows an 85% chance of a rate cut in the first quarter of 2026, up from just 50% last month. We see this as a chance to short the US Dollar Index (DXY) using futures contracts, especially with upcoming US services and employment data. The difference in approach between the Fed’s dovish stance and the European Central Bank’s neutral position supports a stronger EUR/USD. With Eurozone inflation steady at 2.7% in November, the ECB has no reason to lower rates, increasing the policy distance from the US. We recommend buying EUR/USD call options with a strike price near 1.1700 for a favorable risk-reward outcome as the year ends. Gold’s rise above $4,200 is closely linked to decreasing US real yields and a weak dollar. Central bank purchases continue to underpin prices, with central banks adding a net 220 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025, matching previous record levels. We should keep long positions through gold futures or call options on gold ETFs, aiming for the $4,250 resistance mark. Institutional investment drives the crypto market, with Bitcoin’s rise past $92,000 showing strong momentum. Since Vanguard introduced crypto ETFs, there have been over $4 billion in net inflows, indicating that substantial new capital is entering the market. This trend supports long positions in Bitcoin futures, as we expect a supply shock from the 2024 halving to continue against rising demand. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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