**New Zealand Trade Balance and Oil Prices** The Japanese yen has fallen in value as Japan prepares for a parliamentary vote to choose a new Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is gaining strength thanks to a critical minerals deal between the US and Australia. The US Dollar Index dipped slightly to around 98.50, with focus on ongoing trade tensions between the US and China. The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0930, compared to the previous rate of 7.0973. Gold prices remain close to a record high of over $4,380, reflecting worries in the market. Changes in the US government and actions from the Federal Reserve are important factors affecting this trend. **BlackRock’s Bitcoin Product Launch** BlackRock has launched a Bitcoin exchange-traded product on the London Stock Exchange to give UK retail investors access to cryptocurrency. In the crypto market, more institutional investors are expected to join in, which may help stabilize market dynamics. Given the current uncertainty, today’s high gold price of over $4,380 signals a need for defensive investment strategies. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has risen to 25.3, the highest in three months, indicating concerns about a possible US government shutdown and cuts by the Federal Reserve. Traders might want to consider derivatives, like call options on gold (GLD), to protect their portfolios from potential market stress. Weakness in WTI crude oil, now stuck below $57 a barrel for several weeks, is showing stark differences among commodity currencies. This prolonged low price has contributed to an 8% decline in Canadian export revenue over the last quarter. In this situation, it seems wise to sell CAD futures or buy USD/CAD call options. On the other hand, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are performing relatively well. The recent US-Australia minerals deal is expected to increase Australian export values by $10 billion each year, while New Zealand’s trade balance has significantly improved. This backdrop supports strategies like taking long positions in AUD/CAD or NZD/CAD futures. Regarding the US dollar, we remain cautious, even though it is currently strong at around 98.50 on the index. The market is anticipating a 75% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its next meeting, up from 50% just last month. This expectation of easier monetary policy suggests that selling USD call options or buying puts against a range of currencies could be a smart move. The growing acceptance of Bitcoin, highlighted by BlackRock’s new product launch, indicates a fundamental shift in this asset class. So far in 2025, investment products for digital assets have attracted over $5 billion in net inflows, demonstrating strong demand. We see potential in using long-term call options to take advantage of crypto’s upside while managing risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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