Indian Gold ETFs recorded their 11th straight month of net inflows in April. Net inflows reached $297.2 million, up 68% from $176.6 million in March, based on World Gold Council data.
Gold ETFs in India have posted inflows since May 2025, with the highest monthly level in January. In March, gold prices fell 11%, yet Indian Gold ETFs still took in net inflows while many other regions saw exits.
Global Gold ETF Flows
Globally, physically backed Gold ETFs reported $6.6 billion of inflows in April, partly reversing March outflows. The largest April inflows came from the UK at $2.1 billion, followed by the United States at $845 million and Hong Kong at $732 million.
Gold spot prices have moved in a broad range since late March, between $4,400 and $4,900. ETF flows can affect the physical market, while central bank rate expectations and geopolitical conditions have also been linked with price moves.
Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual purchase on record, according to the World Gold Council. Gold is often treated as a store of value and can move against the US Dollar and US Treasuries.
Given the consistent gold demand from Indian ETFs, we see a solid support level for spot prices. This demand, which has now been positive for a full year since May 2025, provides a reliable floor around the $4,400 mark. The inflow of $297.2 million in April alone confirms this trend is not slowing down.
Range Bound Trading Setup
This persistent buying is likely a hedge against domestic inflation, as we’ve seen India’s latest CPI figures for April hold firm at 5.1%, slightly above forecasts. As long as this inflationary pressure remains, Indian retail and institutional buying should continue to absorb any significant price dips. This creates a dependable base for bullish positions on any weakness.
However, the upside for gold appears capped near $4,900 due to hawkish central bank sentiment. Recent data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets are pricing in only a 20% chance of a US interest rate cut before September, limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. This strong resistance suggests a breakout above $5,000 is unlikely in the immediate term.
This dynamic of strong support and firm resistance is compressing volatility, a key factor for options traders. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has recently fallen to a six-week low around 14.5, reflecting market expectations for the price to remain within its current channel. This low-volatility environment is an opportunity in itself.
For the coming weeks, strategies that profit from low volatility and range-bound movement are attractive. We are looking at selling straddles or strangles with strike prices outside the established $4,400 to $4,900 range. Iron condors could also be effective, allowing traders to collect premium while the price stagnates.
The main risk to this view would be a major geopolitical flare-up or an unexpected dovish pivot from a major central bank. Traders should set alerts for movements in energy prices and watch upcoming central bank statements closely. Any sign of policy softening could quickly invalidate the range-bound thesis and require a shift in strategy.
