Services Momentum Supports Risk On
The latest services PMI data for March came in at 57.5, beating the market’s expectation and showing continued strong expansion in a key part of the Indian economy. This positive surprise confirms that the underlying business momentum we saw building at the end of last year is carrying into the second quarter. For us, this reinforces a bullish bias on Indian assets. We should consider adding to or initiating long positions on the Nifty 50 index through futures or call options for the coming weeks. The services sector’s strength, which contributed to an average 11% year-over-year profit growth for Nifty companies in the final quarter of 2025, is a direct tailwind for market earnings. This strong PMI reading suggests that trend is not slowing down. This data is particularly positive for financial services, a major component of the index. With credit demand remaining robust, as seen in the 16.5% loan growth reported by major banks for the year ending March 2026, the environment is favorable. We see value in bullish derivative plays on the Bank Nifty index as a targeted way to trade this strength.Rupee Support And Risk Management
The Indian Rupee should also find support from this strong economic signal, as it tends to attract foreign investment flows. Looking back at a similar period of strong economic data in mid-2025, the Rupee appreciated over 1% against the dollar in the following month. We can position for a stronger Rupee by selling USD/INR call options, anticipating the pair will face resistance. However, we must remain mindful of inflation, as the latest CPI print for February ticked up slightly to 5.3%. Strong growth could give the Reserve Bank of India a reason to maintain a hawkish stance, which could limit the market’s upside. It is wise to protect these bullish positions with disciplined stop-losses. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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