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    Indonesia’s exports dropped to -2.31% in October, down from 11.41% earlier.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Dec 1, 2025
    Indonesia’s exports dropped by 2.31% in October, down from an 11.41% increase earlier. This decline affects the country’s trade balance and economy. Market participants are closely monitoring the situation to see how this will impact Indonesia’s economy and trade relationships. The decline may pressure key industries and lead to changes in economic forecasts.

    Economic Performance Monitoring

    Analysts are paying attention to new economic data to understand the drop in exports better. The steep fall in October exports sends a negative signal for the Indonesian Rupiah. The currency has weakened against the dollar, with the USD/IDR exchange rate approaching 16,500, a level not seen in over a year. This situation could present opportunities in currency derivatives, such as buying USD/IDR call options to anticipate further depreciation of the Rupiah. Moreover, this export slowdown may pressure Indonesia’s main stock index, the IDX Composite, as major commodity and manufacturing companies report lower revenues. Historically, when exports decline, corporate earnings forecasts tend to be lowered in the following quarter. As a result, traders might consider protective strategies, such as buying put options on the index, to safeguard against a possible downturn in the stock market.

    Weakened Global Demand Impact

    The data indicates a broader trend of weakening global demand for key commodities, central to Indonesia’s exports. For instance, recent reports show that global palm oil prices, a vital export, dropped by 8% in the last quarter of 2025. This situation is similar to the slowdown experienced in late 2023, suggesting that traders might want to consider shorting commodity futures linked to Indonesia’s primary exports. Now, all eyes are on Bank Indonesia and its next interest rate decision. The central bank has maintained its key rate at 6.25% to control inflation, but this poor trade data complicates its strategy. This uncertainty could lead to volatility in the bond market, making interest rate swaps an important tool for traders speculating on future decisions by the central bank. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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