Indonesia’s exports in December surprised everyone by growing 11.64%, instead of the expected decline of 2.4%. This strong performance shows healthy export growth for the country at the year’s end. The Australian Dollar fell in value even though China’s Ratingdog PMI showed positive trends. On the other hand, the NZD/USD rose above 0.6000 thanks to favorable Chinese PMI data.

USD JPY and Ratingdog PMI

The USD/JPY stayed over 155.00 despite the Bank of Japan making slow adjustments to its monetary policy. The Chinese Ratingdog Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3, meeting expectations. The EUR/USD remained below 1.1850 as signals from the US Federal Reserve affected market attitudes. The GBP/USD was stable around 1.3700 while traders assessed the Federal Reserve’s outlook influenced by Kevin Warsh. Bitcoin fell below $75,000, continuing a downward trend that could see it drop further to $70,000. Global central banks kept their policy rates unchanged, with emerging markets hinting at possible policy easing soon.

2026 Broker Options

For 2026, there are various brokers available to meet different trading needs. Some offer low spreads, focus on EUR/USD trading, provide high leverage, or cater to regions like MENA and Latin America. Additionally, some brokers offer Islamic and swap-free accounts. Indonesia’s exports for December 2025 exceeded expectations, boasting a remarkable growth of 11.64% instead of the predicted decline. This suggests a strong core in the Indonesian economy that the market may have missed. Traders should see this as a significant indicator for emerging market sentiment in the first quarter of this year. This strong performance aligns with steady Chinese manufacturing PMI data from January 2026, supported by reports of record iron ore shipments from Australia last month. This indicates a strong demand scenario in the Asia-Pacific region, even as other global economies begin to slow down. Therefore, considering calls on commodity-linked currencies like the Australian Dollar, which may be undervalued, could be beneficial. The US Dollar is also an important factor, with January’s inflation numbers in the US slightly higher at 3.2%, putting the Federal Reserve on alert. This creates an interesting situation where emerging market strength meets a strong Dollar. A potential strategy could be to use derivatives to benefit from this divergence, such as going long on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) while shorting the Euro. Looking back at the commodity supercycle in the late 2010s, we noticed that strong export figures often led to a sustained period of IDR outperformance. Given the unexpected December data, buying out-of-the-money IDR call options expiring in three months might offer a favorable risk-reward opportunity. This strategy allows us to capitalize on potential gains while minimizing our initial investment. The ongoing strength in China’s industrial data suggests that the recent weakness of the Australian Dollar might be a misjudgment. We should consider AUD/JPY call spreads to set ourselves up for a rebound in the Aussie, funded by the low-yielding Yen. This trade stands to gain from potential increased commodity demand and the ongoing policy divergence with the Bank of Japan. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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