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    ING’s commodity experts note that European natural gas prices have fallen to eight-month lows because of mild weather.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Dec 3, 2025
    European natural gas prices are going down. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price dropped to just over EUR27.5/MWh, the lowest since April 2024. This decrease is due to unusually warm weather that’s lowering demand and increased U.S. LNG exports putting more pressure on prices. Natural gas storage in Europe is quickly declining. It’s now below 75% of the five-year average and lower than last year’s 85%. This shift in storage levels suggests changes in the market that are affecting prices and storage trends across Europe. Natural gas prices are facing downward pressure, with the front-month TTF contract falling to its lowest since April 2024. This drop comes from warmer weather, which reduces the need for heating, and strong U.S. LNG exports. A recent report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed these exports reached a record high last month. We need to pay close attention to the storage situation. Gas storage in Europe has dropped below 75% full, down from 85% at this time last year, and below the five-year average. This quick decrease means there is less cushion if the weather takes a turn for the colder. This situation could lead to more price volatility in the coming weeks. While prices may stay low in the short term, a sudden price spike is becoming more likely, especially with some weather forecasts predicting colder temperatures after Christmas. For traders, considering out-of-the-money call options for February or March 2026 delivery might be a smart move to prepare for a sudden price increase. We should recall the winter of 2022, when fears of supply issues and cold weather caused prices to soar to record highs. Even though the supply situation is better now, the low storage levels make the market vulnerable to a panic if a long cold spell happens. This past experience reminds us not to be too relaxed about the current low prices.

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