A story was updated on December 1 at 13:30 GMT because it used outdated information. It was wrongly published by the FXStreet Insights Team, which shares market insights. Recent topics include changing currency pairs and commodity prices. The EUR/USD remains strong thanks to a weaker US Dollar, driven by expectations of a rate cut. The GBP/USD is facing some hurdles, while Gold starts the week well, bolstered by Fed cut predictions.

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Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

The market strongly anticipates a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 85% chance of a cut after last week’s disappointing jobs report, which noted only 95,000 new jobs added in November. This expectation for a looser policy shapes our main trading strategies for December. Thus, shorting the US Dollar is a key focus, with options markets indicating more interest in puts on the dollar index (DXY). We’re exploring derivatives that will profit if the DXY falls below the 102.00 level, a crucial support point in the latter half of 2025. With a rate cut almost fully expected, buying out-of-the-money puts could be an economical way to prepare for a more significant drop if the Fed hints at a complete easing cycle. This weakness in the dollar makes long EUR/USD positions particularly appealing, especially as the pair stays above the 1.1600 mark. The European Central Bank has indicated a steady policy, creating a clear monetary difference that should continue to support the Euro. We expect momentum to build towards the 1.1750 resistance level, as seen in late 2024. While GBP/USD has also gained, its rise above 1.3200 feels less certain and shows signs of slowing down. This reflects domestic issues, as recent UK inflation data was higher than anticipated at 3.5%, complicating the Bank of England’s next steps. This suggests that trading Cable may be best for range-bound strategies unless we see a clear breakout. Gold remains a strong conviction, with prices staying above $4,200 an ounce. This situation is similar to the early 2020s when low real interest rates spurred a big rally. With the 10-year Treasury yield now at 3.2%, that environment is returning. We believe call options on gold miners or gold ETFs provide leveraged exposure to more upward movement driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical risks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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