Intel is pursuing a turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, with progress centred on the 18A process and a push towards AI infrastructure and manufacturing services. The share price has risen as the market reassesses Intel beyond a legacy chipmaker.
On near-term drivers, Panther Lake client chips built on 18A have started shipping, and server CPU demand is described as improving as AI workloads expand. Some analysts say Intel is close to sold out in server CPUs for 2026.
Intel has also announced partnerships and ties including Nvidia’s $5 billion investment, Google’s multiyear expansion around Xeon CPUs and custom IPUs, and participation in Terafab’s AI chip initiative. Intel has moved to buy back Apollo’s stake in its Ireland fab.
Risks include valuation and upcoming results, with Intel trading at about 63x 2027 estimated earnings, around three times Nvidia’s forward earnings multiple. Intel reports Q1 2026 results on April 23, with guidance near $12.2 billion revenue and roughly breakeven EPS.
Intel Foundry remains unproven at scale, and competition from AMD, Nvidia, and TSMC leaves limited tolerance for delays. The stock rose more than 50% in nine sessions, the fastest rally in its history, with RSI indicating overbought conditions.
With Intel’s earnings report just nine days away on April 23, the setup feels unusually binary. The stock has seen a historic rally, surging over 50% in a handful of sessions, which significantly raises the stakes for the upcoming numbers. This is no longer a slow-moving value play; it is a momentum story facing its first major test.
The options market is reflecting this tension, with implied volatility suggesting a potential stock move of over 10% in either direction following the announcement. This makes buying options outright expensive, but it also confirms that the market expects a significant reaction to the results and guidance. We believe the key is to position for this expected volatility, not just a single direction.
For those leaning bullish, buying out-of-the-money call options or using call spreads for the May expiration cycle could offer a way to play for a strong beat-and-raise quarter. The bull case hinges on management confirming strong server CPU demand and providing concrete revenue milestones for the foundry business. A positive surprise here could force investors who missed the rally to chase the stock higher.
Conversely, the risk of a “sell the news” event is very real, especially given the stock’s run-up to a forward P/E multiple near 63x. We saw a similar dynamic in Q3 of 2025, where a strong pre-earnings rally was met with a 10% pullback on solid, but not spectacular, results. Traders anticipating a repeat could consider buying put options or using put spreads to protect against a potential de-rating if guidance disappoints.
Given the high cost of options, a volatility-focused strategy like a long straddle or strangle could be a more neutral way to position for a large price swing. This approach benefits from a sharp move in either direction and essentially makes a bet that the 10% move priced in by the market is an underestimation of the actual outcome. This aligns with the idea that the April 23 report is a true binary event for the turnaround narrative.
For traders already holding a profitable long stock position from the recent rally, now is a critical time to consider hedging. Buying protective puts can lock in recent gains and provide downside protection through the earnings announcement. This allows participation in further upside while setting a clear floor on the position if the report fails to validate the stock’s recent move.
Beyond the immediate earnings catalyst, we will be watching for news flow related to foundry customers and competitor execution. Recent industry reports indicate that TSMC is making faster-than-expected progress on its next-generation node, reinforcing that any execution slip-ups from Intel will be punished. The competitive landscape leaves absolutely no room for error in the coming weeks.
