American Express (AXP) recently reported strong fourth-quarter results, highlighting increases in card member spending and net interest income. The company anticipates an 8-10% revenue growth for the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, AXP has announced a 17% rise in its quarterly dividend. The company is focusing on technology, customer engagement, and global expansion to keep this growth going, especially among millennials and Gen Z users.

Current Analysts Opinions

Analysts have mixed views on AXP’s short-term outlook. Out of 26 analysts, 16 recommend holding the stock, while 8 think it’s a good buy. The average price target is $319.95, slightly below the current price, indicating limited short-term gains. However, some estimates are as high as $394. Recently, AXP’s market performance peaked at $326.27, before a downturn and a rebound that created wave patterns hinting at future growth. The market confirms that AXP is moving into wave ((1)) of V, showing positive momentum again. An impulsive chart pattern suggests a rise to the $351.70–$392.36 range. Analysts are monitoring the Elliott structure to find the best exit points due to potential corrections. Ongoing economic uncertainty, compounded by the current federal government shutdown, adds to the unpredictability. American Express has surpassed its earlier high of $326.27, indicating that the corrective wave IV from early 2025 likely has ended. The current price movement marks the beginning of a significant upward trend, aiming for the $351.70 to $392.36 range. Traders might consider making near-term bullish moves, such as buying call options or implementing bull call spreads, to benefit from this expected rise. However, the ongoing federal government shutdown, which began on October 1st, brings considerable market risk. Historical events, like the 16-day shutdown in October 2013 that caused the VIX volatility index to jump over 40%, show that political uncertainty can quickly raise option premiums. This heightened volatility can make derivatives more costly and emphasizes the need for careful risk management in the upcoming weeks.

Potential Macroeconomic Impacts

This macroeconomic pressure could significantly affect AXP’s main business, which depends on strong consumer sentiment and spending. Recent third-quarter data indicates that while spending among high-end cardholders remains strong, growth has slightly slowed from the peaks seen in the first half of 2025. A prolonged shutdown could further weaken consumer confidence, potentially opposing the stock’s bullish technical trend. It’s vital to understand that the current rally is considered the final leg, Wave V, of a larger cycle. Once the target zone is reached, a significant and prolonged correction is anticipated. Therefore, any bullish positions should be managed with a clear exit strategy since the risk of a major trend reversal increases close to the upper end of the $392.36 target. As the stock approaches $351.70 and beyond, traders should think about hedging strategies or get ready for a reversal. Buying long-dated put options may provide protection against existing long positions or serve as a speculative method for the major correction expected to follow this final wave. Watching for signs of price exhaustion as it enters the target zone will be critical. The pattern of this final rise will offer important insights for timing an exit. If the rally is quick and strong, a small pullback might occur before one last push. Conversely, a choppy, overlapping advance could suggest a diagonal pattern, indicating the top is near. Given the potential market peak and uncertainties from the shutdown, strategies that profit from sharp price movements in either direction, like a long straddle, could be worth considering. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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