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    Japan’s machinery orders unexpectedly fell by 0.9% in August, missing the 0.5% forecast.

    by VT Markets
    /
    Oct 16, 2025
    Australia will release its employment report for September at 0:30 GMT. This report is expected to show a small increase of 17,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate is predicted to stay at 4.3%. We have seen this slow growth trend in recent months.

    September Employment Figures Released

    The September employment figures are out, showing a softer increase of 15,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%. This indicates a cooling labor market over the last quarter, reducing expectations for another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) before the end of the year. Traders focused on the Australian dollar may see this data as negative. We suggest buying AUD/USD put options expiring in December 2025 as a way to take advantage of further weakness. This opinion is backed by recent data indicating a slowdown in China’s industrial production, an important market for Australian exports. In terms of interest rates, the slow job growth points towards a more cautious stance from the RBA. Traders might want to use interest rate swaps to bet that the official cash rate will stay the same through the first quarter of 2026. This is a big change from a few months ago when the market anticipated at least one more rate hike.

    Market Implications and Strategies

    The latest Q3 2025 inflation report shows core CPI still at 3.1%, placing the RBA in a challenging situation. This uncertainty can lead to increased market volatility, making long volatility strategies appealing. Buying AUD/USD straddles in the coming weeks could be a smart way to prepare for a significant price movement, regardless of the direction. We recall a similar situation from late 2023 when weak labor data led to a sharp shift in RBA expectations and a drop in the Aussie dollar. During that time, rate-sensitive sectors on the ASX 200 surged, anticipating lower rates for a longer period. Therefore, call options on Australian real estate or banking sector ETFs could also provide opportunities in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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