Japan’s retail trade fell by 1.1% in August, which is better than the previous decline of 1.6%. AUD/USD improved, reaching 0.6600. This rise came after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep its key interest rate at 3.6%.

Gold Nears Record Highs

Gold is performing strongly, nearing record highs of about $3,850. It’s set for its best month in 14 years, having increased by 12% in September due to worries over a U.S. government shutdown. The USD/JPY remains steady above 148.50, following the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions. This has led to uncertainty about future rate hikes. Bitcoin stays firm above $114,000, despite previous fluctuations and worries about a possible U.S. government shutdown. Traders are eagerly awaiting the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke in Rhode Island, describing the Fed’s situation as challenging.

Opportunities in Forex Trading

For EUR/USD trading in 2025, many brokers are offering low spreads and quick trade execution, which is great for both new and experienced Forex traders. With a U.S. government shutdown looming, there’s a noticeable flight to safety, explaining why gold is posting its best monthly performance in over a decade. A similar trend occurred during the lengthy shutdown in late 2018 when gold prices surged. Derivative traders should note that implied volatility in assets like gold and stock indices is likely to remain high, presenting chances for profit from price fluctuations. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance is reinforced by this likely economic disruption, as Chair Powell indicated a challenging future. The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll report is now a key focus. However, a shutdown could delay or distort this data, as seen in October 2013. This uncertainty makes short-term options on major currency pairs, like straddles on the EUR/USD, a strategy to trade potential sharp movements in either direction. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s uncertain view on rate hikes is overshadowing weak domestic data, like the August retail sales drop of 1.1%. While consumer spending is slow, core inflation has stubbornly stayed above the 2% target for 18 months, pressing the BoJ to act. This tension is weakening the yen, with options traders betting that USD/JPY might hit the 150 level, a significant psychological mark last reached in 2024. On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia is taking a cautious approach by holding rates steady. This hawkish stance supports the AUD, especially against a weaker U.S. dollar, as it regains the 0.6600 mark. Australia’s recent quarterly CPI data for August 2025 shows inflation at 3.8%, well above the RBA’s target, suggesting that AUD strength may continue in the upcoming weeks. Bitcoin is stabilizing above $114,000, benefiting from both government turbulence and the seasonal bullish trends in “Uptober.” This is reflected in a 20% increase in open interest for Bitcoin options this month, with a significant leaning towards call options expiring in October. This indicates that traders are positioning for a potential breakout driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and favorable seasonal patterns. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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